Cross-strait affairs between China and Taiwan have become politically intense since the Taiwanese national elections held in January this year. The situation became further complicated when a Chinese speedboat with four crew members onboard attempted to escape search by Taiwanese coast guard vessel near Kinmen Island in mid-February, and capsized.

For the last few months, China has protested against the legality of elections in Taiwan and issued warnings both politically and militarily. In its official statement, it cited the Cairo declaration and the Article 8 of the Potsdam Proclamation claiming whatever be the election outcome, Taiwan is a part of China under the one-China principle. China also increased its military activities in the region with the Chinese aircrafts and warships constantly hovering around.

After the Kinmen incident, China's Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO) strongly condemned the deaths and accused Taiwanese authorities of treating Chinese fishermen roughly and sought punitive actions. The PLA actions in the Taiwan Strait have also intensified. Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense reported that a total of 32 aircraft sorties with many crossing the central line of the strait and entering the southwest, southeast and eastern airspace on 21 March 2024. Also, five PLA Navy ships were detected which continue to operate around the Taiwan Strait.

These developments vis-a-vis China around Kinmen Island, have a deep impact on the internal politics as well as the overall security and sovereignty of Taiwan. The internal political dynamics of Taiwan play a critical role in determining Cross-strait affairs. At the domestic level, Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate and Vice-President William Lai Ching-te has been elected as the next President who pledges to continue with his party’s ideology of promoting Taiwanization; however, the Koumintang (KMT) has a majority in the Legislative Yuan. KMT has been pushing for re-establishing communication with Beijing to de-escalate tensions since its election campaign. China labels DPP as ‘separatists’, and its stance is in line with that of KMT which provides more space to China to influence Taiwan’s internal state of affairs. The incident at Kinmen Island has stirred the debate further within Taiwan and given KMT the opportunity to target DPP over its approach towards China and to influence public opinion in its favour.

Externally, the enhanced Chinese military activities could pose challenges for Taiwan in resupplying its military outposts in Kinmen and Matsu, potentially disrupting its naval operations which could lead to a maritime quarantine kind of situation. Kinmen Island, given its close proximity to mainland China, has been of extreme strategic significance for Taiwan since the period of Chinese civil war. It has provided a significant advantage to Taiwan, allowing it to monitor Chinese activities and maintain presence close to the mainland. The island is also the frontier of Taiwan, and had faced Chinese aggression during the Second Cross-strait crisis in 1958 and other instances that followed. Current developments could lead to heightened tensions between the two sides creating a more volatile environment in the region, increasing the risk of accidents, and unintended incidents such as the February 14th one.

From China’s perspective, the strategic location of Taiwan-administered Kinmen and Matsu Islands make them more desirable for China to have a tight grip through more vigilance and restrictions. China will be using the incident as a strategic opportunity to rationalise its claims over Taiwan domestically at the same time internationalise the matter. For instance, in his address to the Second Session of the 14th National People’s Congress of the People’s Republic of China on 5 March 2024 on Report on the Work of the Government, Premier Li Qiang reiterated China’s stance on Taiwan that it “will promote the peaceful development of cross-Strait relations, be firm in advancing the cause of China’s reunification, and uphold the fundamental interests of the Chinese nation.”

The US has extended its support with a bipartisan US Congress delegation, including Beijing hawk Mike Gallagher, visiting Taipei amidst the rising tensions soon after the Kinmen incident. However, the internal debates, increased negative public perception of the handling of the situation, and the increased Chinese military activities seem to have made an impact. This could be sensed with the change in responses made by Taiwanese authorities over the incident. Initially, the Taiwanese government expressed regret yet emphasised that the actions of the coast guard were in accordance with the law but lately, in a statement by Taiwan’s Ocean Affairs Council (OAC) Minister, Kuan Bi-ling has acknowledged the shortcomings of the Coast Guard in evidence collection and asked for further investigation in the matter.

Given all these circumstances, it will be a test for the new administration under President-elect Lai after his swearing-in scheduled in May 2024 to assuage his constituencies about threat from China, work with KMT in the Legislative Yuan towards building consensus, and engage the United States and other concerned nations in the region in case of an escalation while maintaining status quo by securing its strategically crucial islands and territorial waters across the Taiwan Strait. How this will all play out in the longer run is yet to be determined but the current situation has caught the global attention given its potentiality of worsening relations between Taiwan and China. Also its impact on the geopolitics of the Indo-Pacific region merits attention.

Dr Sweta Kumari is an Associate Fellow at the Vivekananda International Foundation, New Delhi.