The Quad Member states have accelerated their engagements and these are marked by Summits and trilateral-bilateral meetings. In June 2022, the Defence Ministers of Australia, Japan and the US convened the Trilateral Defense Ministerial Meeting (TDMM) in Singapore on the sidelines of the 2022 Shangri-La Dialogue. Their focus was “to enhance trilateral defense cooperation in the interest of regional security, buttressing the important work of their nations’ diplomats”.

In less than three months, the Defence Ministers met again in October 2022 at the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command headquarters in Hawaii. The US Department of Defence statement notes that “the ministers exchanged views on the regional security environment, and discussed deepening trilateral defense cooperation” and “committed to taking concrete, practical steps together in order to anchor stability and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region”.

Australian Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Defence Richard Marles Twitter post states “we reaffirmed our commitment to work together and with our global partners to keep the Indo-Pacific safe and secure for all,"

The Japanese readout notes "shared concerns about the situation in the East and South China Seas and reaffirmed that they oppose any unilateral attempts to change the status quo by force or any unilateral actions…reiterated the importance of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait,"

The above concern are now a recurring feature in the TDMM Leader’s statements, and have been accorded high priority. Significantly, few of these have transcended ‘Statement making’ and been put into operations.

Be that as it may, a significant feature of the Quad members’ engagements has been the understanding that Members are free to join a Quad-led initiative based on their national interests. This lends to the formulation of “Quad minus one (member)” or “Quad plus One”, or even “Quad minus One and Plus One”, the latter being non-Quad country. In this context the Trilateral Defense Ministerial Meeting (TDMM) is “Quad minus one (member)” in which India has chosen to distance itself. There are at least four important reasons for India’s decision.  

First, India does not intend to be part of any military alliance and its interpretation of the Quad is that it is a “plurilateral grouping, a group of countries that have a shared vision of their attributes and values. They also have a shared vision of the Indo-Pacific as a free, open, transparent and inclusive region,” New Delhi prefers partnerships with diverse countries who wish to come together to address common global problems.

Second, India does not consider the India-US Malabar series of naval exercises in which all Quad Members join occasionally, as targeted against any country i.e. there is “no link between the Malabar exercise and the Quad”.

Third, India does not see any link between AUKUS and the Quad. External Affairs Minister, Dr. S. Jaishankar has noted that India does not see a “particular connection” between AUKUS. In fact the Indian Mission to the IAEA in Vienna “forced China to withdraw its resolution against the AUKUS” at the “General Conference of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) held in Vienna from September 26-30, 2022. China had wanted to get a resolution passed against the AUKUS for seeking to provide Australia with nuclear-powered submarines (but armed with conventional weapons)”.

Fourth, India is conscious of the fact that China is a neighbour and the border dispute that had been peaceful for over four decades, but in 2020 witnessed PLA aggression in the Galwan River in the Himalayas in sub-zero temperatures at heights of 14,000 feet and led to tensions between the two countries. There have been several rounds of border talks between the militaries of the two countries and India has stood firm on it belief that there could be no normalcy till border pacts were respected. In this context, external affairs minister S Jaishankar has stated that India “ continue[s] to strive for a relationship with China, but one that is built on mutual sensitivity, mutual respect, and mutual interest.”

Meanwhile, there are signs that “Taiwan may soon enter in the Quad’s agenda as tensions become more intense” given that Taiwan Strait has featured prominently in the TDMM deliberations.

Taiwan is a highly sensitive issue for China and till very recently India-China joint statements had included ‘one China policy’; but in June 2014, New Delhi demanded reciprocity through ‘One-India’ policy. Notwithstanding that New Delhi has “neither formally discarded it [one China policy] nor is it willing to reaffirm it amidst growing conflict with Beijing over territorial issues”. Under the circumstances, India does not see itself being drawn into the TDMM.

Dr Vijay Sakhuja is Consultant Kalinga International Foundation, New Delhi.