China is visibly riled after two controversial visits by US political leaders to Taiwan. Earlier this month, in quick succession, US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan and a second visit by U.S. Congressional members on 15 August prompted China to hold additional military exercises in areas surrounding Taiwan.

Soon after Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced multiple “Countermeasures in Response” which included cancellations of (a) China-U.S. Theater Commanders Talk; (b) China-U.S. Defense Policy Coordination Talks (DPCT); (c) China-U.S. Military Maritime Consultative Agreement (MMCA) meetings; and suspensions of (d) China-U.S. cooperation on the repatriation of illegal immigrants; (e) China-U.S. cooperation on legal assistance in criminal matters; (f) China-U.S. cooperation against transnational crimes; (g) China-U.S. counter narcotics cooperation; and (h) China-U.S. talks on climate change. Although cancellations / suspension of bilateral initiatives has been a feature in the past, but in the present context these are directly related to the provocations emerging from the US’ new approaches to sustain its Taiwan policy.

Meanwhile, there have been frequent violations of the Taiwanese air defence identification zone (ADIZ) by the Chinese air force and the multi-dimensional military exercises are clearly aimed at intimidating Taiwan as also signal to the US that Beijing would not be deterred from using force to curb any move by Taipei to declare independence.

Beijing has also announced “re-organization of the Eastern Command naval leadership” and appointed Major General Wang Zhongcai, the Coast Guard Chief, as the naval commander for the East China Sea and Taiwan Strait. The General is known for “overseeing several incursions into the Japanese-administered Senkaku Islands”. This appointment is surely aimed at supplementing Chinese belligerence towards Taiwan and support “unrelenting efforts to escalate military exercises in the region”. A senior Japanese researcher at Japan’s National Institute for Defense Studies has observed that “China has decided to deploy top talent to the areas facing the most intense tensions. They may be looking at operating an aircraft carrier around Taiwan,”

Among the many US “push backs” against China, Washington has drawn plans to upgrade-augment the existing military facilities at island and atolls in the Pacific Ocean. In this context, it is important to recall the November 2021 US’ Department of Defence Report on “Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China”, which notes that since 2015 China has undertaken reclamation and extensive buildup in the Spratly Islands and has added “more than 3,200 acres of land”. The Chinese controlled / occupied outposts in the Spratly Island are now equipped with “ advanced anti-ship and anti-aircraft missile systems and military jamming equipment, marking the most capable land-based weapons systems deployed by any claimant in the disputed South China Sea to date”.

South China Sea is contiguous to the western Pacific Ocean and it is quite natural that the US has begun the buildup on the atolls and islands to counter China. In fact, the western Pacific Ocean has been the pivotal geographic space for the US since the World War II and through the whole of the Cold War period lasting nearly three decades.  

Washington has now accorded high priority to the western Pacific region in terms of foreign policy, trade and economic engagements. The last two US administrations, first under President Barak Obama who advocated “pivot” or “rebalancing” toward the Asia-Pacific, and under President Donald Trump who endorsed the Indo-Pacific through a strategy, this large expanse of water has been a high priority region in US’ strategic calculus.

The US has also announced the Pacific Deterrence Initiative (PDI) which concerns fiscal support for military activities and associated infrastructure investment plans in the Pacific Ocean. It involves military related construction, to “demonstrate the U.S. commitment to preserving a free and open Indo-Pacific” and “maintaining and extending our [US] military advantage in the region, paced to threats posed by the PRC, while deterring and countering the destabilizing actions of North Korea.”.

The PDI supports the proposed investment plan by the USINDOPACOM to “Regain the Advantage”, a concept that establishes “necessary linkages between the strategy, capacity, capabilities, and budgetary priorities across four focus areas: (a) Joint Force Lethality; (b) Force Design and Posture; (c) Strengthen Allies and Partners; and (d) Exercises , Experimentation, and Innovation.

Finally, the current security dynamic in the western Pacific Ocean is poised to attract unrelenting war gaming by China, and in response, naval exercises and Freedom of Navigation (FON) missions in the South China Sea by the US and its allies will see significant increase. These potentially preclude any US-China dialogue in the coming months.

Dr Vijay Sakhuja is Consultant Kalinga International Foundation, New Delhi.