At long last, earlier this month, the 19th edition of the annual Shangri La Dialogue (SLD) finally took place at its usual venue in Singapore. The last dialogue was in 2019 after which the COVID-19 pandemic had precluded the event. The pandemic was an important issue for discussion during the SLD, particularly in the context of how the international community fought hard against the virus; however, two significant issues appeared to loom large in the minds of the participants.

First Russia’s military intervention in Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelensky captured the limelight by his speech delivered through video conference. He appeared confident that his country would push back Russia and made a bold statement that Ukraine would “definitely prevail in this war that Russia has started.” He also called for reforms of the UN and urged this world body to respond to all forms of aggression. Furthermore, the UN Security Council “do not provide a fair representation for most nations of the world. The voices of entire regions of the planet often cannot be heard when it is vital.”

The western nations particularly the Europeans are naturally worried about the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. Significantly they are united against the Russia’s aggression. Finland and Sweden have applied for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Membership and their application is being considered on priority basis. This would expand NATO’s area of operation further fuelling the ongoing geopolitical contestation.

Many Asian leaders have called for dialogue and diplomatic solutions between the two countries and some countries (Australia, India, Japan, New Zealand, the Republic of Korea, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam) have rushed humanitarian aid to Ukraine.

The reverberations of the Russia-Ukraine conflict were also felt during the SLD; China, according to General Wei Fenghe, ‘deeply regrets and is greatly saddened’ over the conflict. Further China did not see “maximum pressure or sanctions” on Russia would “resolve the Ukraine situation”. He also clarified that “China has never provided material support to Russia” with regard to Ukraine conflict.

The Japanese Minister of Defense Kishi Nobuo called for a “rules-based international order’. Malaysia’s Senior Minister of Defence Dato’ Seri Hishammuddin Tun Hussein was concerned that the Ukraine-Russia conflict had led to volatility in commodity price has surged, with food prices surge and reaching levels not seen since the 2007-08 price spikes. Similarly, Indonesia’s Minister of Defense, Prabowo Subianto, noted ‘It seems far away from us but it affects us directly. The food problem, the energy problem.’  

Second, as expected, China and the US sparred at the Dialogue each accusing the other of causing instability in the region. General Wei began with a “conciliatory tone” and noted that “stable China-U.S. relationship serves the interests of both countries and the rest of the world”. But in the same breath, he accused the US of “interfering in China’s internal affairs and stop harming China’s interests”. He even put out a challenge that if the “U.S. wants confrontation, China would fight to the end… China is willing to talk, as long as discussions are conducted with mutual respect”.

The contents of US Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III accusations against China were nothing new and focused on “PRC’s expanding fishing fleet”, “outposts on man-made islands bristling with advanced weaponry to advance its illegal maritime claims” and “PRC vessels plunder the region’s provisions”. He also alluded to China’s aggression against India and its hardened position on the border issue.

US Secretary of Defense recalled a naval incident involving the PLA Navy ship and an Australian P-8 maritime patrol aircraft, wherein the former had flashed a high power laser at the Australian aircraft that had “seriously endangering everyone onboard”. He also blamed Chinese fighter jets of conducting aggressive manoeuvers to intercepts “allied aircraft operating lawfully in the East China and the South China Seas”.

On Taiwan, Secretary of Defense restated US’ one-China policy which is guided by the Taiwan Relations Act (assisting Taiwan in maintaining a sufficient self-defense capability), the three Joint Communiques, and the Six Assurances remains unchanged; however, the US does “not support Taiwan independence”.

While the US has reiterated its policy, the Chinese Defence Minister Wei made known that his government seeks “peaceful reunification” with Taiwan but reserved “other options”.

It is the latter that prompted Japanese Prime Minister Kishida, to state that ‘‘international community already shares the concern that a situation akin to Russia’s aggression against Ukraine could erupt in the Indo-Pacific’’ amid fears that China may be emboldened by the Russian aggression, and invade Taiwan.

Dr Vijay Sakhuja is Consultant Kalinga International Foundation, New Delhi.