The recent security cooperation Agreement between Solomon Islands and China has alarmed many countries of the Pacific Ocean. In particular, the US is visibly concerned and the White House spokesperson stated that the Agreement “follows a pattern of China offering shadowy, vague deals with little regional consultation in fishing, resource management, development assistance and now security practices.” Similarly, New Zealand foreign affairs minister Nanaia Mahuta warned that it “could destabilise the current institutions and arrangements that have long underpinned the Pacific region’s security”. Meanwhile Australia’s Minister for the Pacific Zed Seselja met Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare to persuade him to not sign the Agreement.

The leaked draft Agreement document (circulating in the social media) provides an opportunity to China to dispatch its “armed police, military personnel, and other law enforcement forces” to assist the Solomon Island government “maintain social order, protecting people’s lives and property, and providing humanitarian assistance” as well as dispatch Chinese forces to the country to “protect the safety of Chinese personnel and major projects.” There is also provision in the Agreement for Chinese ships to make port calls to the Solomon Islands for “logistical replenishment”. The above Agreement should not be seen as a ‘surprise’; instead it was waiting to happen after Solomon Islands announced in 2019 that it was ceasing its diplomatic recognition of Taiwan.

Meanwhile Solomon Islands Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare has dismissed speculations that an opportunity is being created for a Chinese naval base; instead the Agreement, according to the Prime Minister, is not only important, but necessary to respond to “hard internal threats” confronted by the government. This apprehension emerged from “last November's riots” when the “security agreement with Australia” was found “inadequate to deal with our hard internal threats” Furthermore the “economic impact of the November Riots has nearly crippled Solomon Islands.”

Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare has also accused the US and Australia of not being transparent about security issues in the Pacific Ocean. Addressing his Parliament, he stated that he came to know about AUKUS treaty through the media: “One would expect that as a member of the Pacific family, the Solomon Islands and members of the Pacific should have been consulted to ensure this AUKUS treaty is transparent.”

Be that as it may, China’s political, diplomatic and economic advances in other Pacific Island nations are well known. In fact China has developed a comprehensive understanding of the Pacific Island nations. There are at least five institutes in China that research Oceania and these play a vital role in Chinese diplomacy and economic engagements in the region.

While Australia and the US have been leading by providing security assistance primarily for humanitarian assistance exercises and training, China has been exploring strategic and defence cooperation with Pacific Islands; but it has not been quite successful. For instance, Papua New Guinean (PNG) is concerned about the Chinese fishing fleet who not only engage in illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing but are known to be Chinese military militia which has national security implications for PNG. China was exploring the possibility of co-developing four major ports as also upgrading Lombrum Naval Base on Manus Island; but the plans were shelved due to strong opposition from Australia who offered to redevelop the naval base. The deep-water Lombrum naval base at PNG’s Manus is also critical for US’ western Pacific military surge. In 2020, the US even warned the Pacific island nations about “security threats posed by a Chinese company’s cut-price bid to build an undersea internet cable”.  

While major powers are pursuing competitive strategies against each other in the Pacific Ocean, the island countries in the region are witnessing climate induced changes such as sea level rise, varying rainfall patterns, severe flooding, frequent droughts and altered growing seasons. These near-calamitous phenomenon are adversely impacting on socio-economic development.

China has engaged these island countries through the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) and contributed nearly $1 million annually to the China Pacific Island Countries Economic Development and Cooperation Forum (EDCF) secretariat. In 2020, Beijing established a $1.9 million fund to support the region’s COVID-19 response and in 2021, during the inaugural foreign ministers’ meeting, it assured support for poverty reduction and climate change. All in all, China is the “second largest donor in the Pacific, after Australia”.

The US has long considered the Pacific Ocean as its backyard and in 1954, U.S. President Dwight D. Eisenhower declared it as an “American lake”. It has deployed significant military capabilities into the region and major restructuring-redeployment of forces and buildup of military related infrastructure is currently underway as part of the Pacific Deterrence Initiative. The 2021 US Interim National Security Guidance has labelled China as the only “competitor” and Beijing has not shown any signs of “backing off” despite “push backs” from the US.

In essence stage is set for major power rivalry in the Pacific Ocean and Pacific Island nations such as the Solomon Islands will be confronted with strategic dilemmas to choose between China and the US including its allies such as Australia and New Zealand.

Dr Vijay Sakhuja is Consultant Kalinga International Foundation, New Delhi.