Military contestation between the US and China in the western Pacific, and US and Russia over Ukraine is all set to be catalyzed. Congressional leaders have agreed to boost Indo-Pacific security by providing “approximately $7.1 billion in investments that support and attempt to improve the current posture, capabilities, and activities of U.S. forces in the Indo-Pacific region” This strong support for the Pacific Deterrence Initiative (PDI) comes in the wake of a realization that the US has “lost a lot of ground to the Chinese while we’ve been focused over the last 20 years on counterterrorism and counterinsurgency, and they’ve caught up in [artificial intelligence], machine learning, hypersonics and a lot of other things,”

The PDI calls for additional investments in military arsenal (ships, aircraft, missiles, etc.) and personnel, and support USINDOPACOM to “Regain the Advantage”, a concept that establishes “necessary linkages between the strategy, capacity, capabilities, and budgetary priorities across four focus areas: (a) Joint Force Lethality; (b) Force Design and Posture; (c) Strengthen Allies and Partners; and (d) Exercises , Experimentation, and Innovation. There is strong focus on building associated military infrastructure in the Pacific Ocean.

Military facilities across the western Pacific and Oceania are central to US’ Indo-Pacific Command and are the core of its Indo-Pacific strategy and tactical operations against China. The US has begun to reinforce these and is engaged in urgent up-gradation with new/augmented military infrastructure at Guam, Hawaii, Wake Island and Tinian and Pagan.

At another level, US’ complex network of formal security alliances with Japan and Republic of Korea (RoK), that have endured since World War II notwithstanding pressures from domestic constituencies in these countries asking US forces (about 56,000 active military personnel of all four services) to ‘leave’, are being invigorated. In this list, the US-Philippines strategic partnership must be included.

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's government has approved 10th straight annual increase in defence spending (rise 1.1% to $47.18 billion) for fiscal year 2022 “ against a backdrop of China's rapid military expansion and North Korea's nuclear and missile programmes” Meanwhile, Tokyo and Washington have drawn up a draft joint operation plan that would enable the setup of an attack base along the Nansei island chain in Japan’s southwest in the event of a Taiwan contingency.  

The Indo-Pacific maritime space is a vast expanse, and Taiwan and South China Sea are emerging as ‘hot spots’. The US’ relentless freedom of navigation operations (FONOP) aim at rules-based international order and these are now being endorsed by many of the US allies and partners. US and Japan have conducted multiple naval and air maneuvers in the region, and have been joined by the other two members of the Quad i.e. Australia and India and have recalled the varuious provisions of the 1982 UNCLOS and challenged Chinese excessive maritime claims that impose restrictions on the free flow of commerce through the South China Sea..

Other like-minded nations too have joined and conducted similar type of operations much to the discomfort of China which has issued warning/demarche/protests. China now faces a new challenge from the convergence among the Euro-Atlantic powers such as Canada, France, Germany, Netherlands and the UK who have also pivoted to the Indo-Pacific and announced their respective strategies including dispatching warships to the region.

China is rattled and a Chinese scholar accused Britain of its colonial mindset and stated “London still views itself as an ‘empire on which the sun never sets’ who sees betting in a contest between the world's two top powers, China and the US, as something that suits its international status,”

Russia has not been a mute spectator in the evolving security dynamics in the Indo-Pacific and has made clear its intentions to counter the US’ Indo-Pacific strategy. It has accused the US of posturing by sending strategic bombers: “Over the past month, about 30 sorties have been made to the borders of the Russian Federation, which is 2.5 times more than in the corresponding period last year,” Russia is visibly concerned and has openly announced that “Russian-Chinese coordination is becoming a stabilising factor in world affairs,” and this view has been endorsed by China’s defence ministry which stated that both sides “continue to deepen strategic cooperation” and “make new contributions to safeguarding the core interests of China and Russia and maintaining international and regional security and stability”.

Meanwhile, the US is also embroiled with Russia over Ukraine where Moscow has amassed 100,000 troops as well as artillery on its border. Kremlin is contemplating military measures in Ukraine. This has necessitated a boost for US’ European Deterrence Initiative (EDI) which will receive about $570 million including $300 million for the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, which provides military assistance to Ukraine amid fears that Russia may invade Ukraine in 2022.

Dr Vijay Sakhuja is Consultant Kalinga International Foundation, New Delhi.