Dr Vijay Sakhuja
There are several features of China’s Silk Road and span the political-economic-strategic-military-cyber-space-cultural and more recently the health continuum. Among these the geopolitical, geostrategic and geo-economics have captured much of international attention and stoked debates on the rise of China. Similarly, the geo-cultural, digital, space, industry 4.0 technologies, and health are equally important subjects of analysis and have been part of the global discourse.
The cultural dimension of the Silk Road is about setting up of Confucius Centers and geo-cultural relates to maritime heritage diplomacy, Silk Road world heritage, Silk Road cruising, etc. The digital Silk Road involves fiber optic cables, 5G network infrastructure and investments in Industry 4.0 technologies involving predictive and cognitive tools and algorithms, autonomous, unmanned and remote controlled platforms, robots and machines. It is labeled as the ‘invisible silk road’ and aims to “improve international communications connectivity” as also “foster the internationalization of China’s rapidly growing tech companies”. The space Silk Road involves the BeiDou navigation system and the lunar exploration program centered on space stations (Tiangong-1 and Tiangong-2), as well as a cargo ship (Tianzhou).
The health Silk Road has its genesis in the Covid-19 pandemic and since March 2020 China dispatched medical teams, COVID related medical equipment and millions of personal protective equipment through its diplomatic missions and local associations promoting the Chinese idea of “Community of common health”. However the flip side of health Silk Road was that it came to be labelled as “Wolf warrior diplomacy” , a confrontationist and combative, approach by the Chinese diplomats in their attempts to prevent “discourse power” in international politics against China over the origins of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Yet another Chinese Silk Road initiative is about the Polar Silk Route. The 2021-2025 “five-year plan” notes that China would “participate in pragmatic cooperation in the North Pole” and “raise its ability to participate in the protection and utilization of the South Pole”. It also plans to launch a satellite in 2022 to track shipping routes and monitor changes in sea ice in the Arctic.
The United States and its western partners who are joined by few Asian countries such as Japan, India, Republic of Korea and some countries of the ASEAN grouping are attempting to push back against the Chinese Silk Road diplomacy. Perhaps the most visible example of their initiatives is the constitution of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue or the Quad (Australia, India, Japan and the US) which the Chinese view it as a containment strategy.
The Quad is not averse to allowing the members to form new partnerships or join others that may at times exclude-include one of the partners or even allow non-Quad countries to join. This flexibility in the QUAD allows Members to join/leave the grouping based on respective national-regional-global interests. For instance, the Blue Dot Network is a joint regional infrastructure scheme involving the US, Australia and Japan to "promote quality infrastructure investment that is open and inclusive, transparent, economically viable, financially, environmentally and socially sustainable, and compliant with international standards, laws, and regulations" against China's Belt Road Initiative with issues of ‘debt trap' in mind. The Resilient Supply Chain Initiative (RSCI) (Australia, India and Japan) aims to diversify procurement and overcome the risks of overdependence on a single source which could result in disruptions. the UK led 5G alliance of ten democracies including the Quad members is an alternative to Huawei, the Chinese telecommunications giant, amid concerns about espionage and cyber security risks.
Similarly the Five Eyes Signal Intelligence Network (United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand), constituted during the Second World War is an itellegence sharing grouping. This alliance has now accepted Japan as the sixth member and South Korea too is hoping to join.
The Middle East Quad (India, Israel, US, UAE) has climate change, energy and regional security in focus. It combines UAE's capital and oil resources, Israel's advanced technology, India's manufacturing abilities and US' global demand to counter the Chinese monopoly in manufacturing, 5G, Industry 4.0 technology, semiconductors, space as also limit Chinese power projection in the Indian Ocean-Persian Gulf - Arabian Sea - Red Sea crescent.
More recently, President Joe Biden, Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Prime Minister Scott Morrison have announced the ‘AUKUS’ under which Australia will receive technical support to achieve its ambition of acquiring a nuclear-powered submarine. U.S.-U.K. Mutual Defence Agreement of 1958, Australia is the second alliance partner country with whom U.S. has shared its nuclear propulsion technology.
Two Quad members who are also part of the G7 (US, Canada, the United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, France and Japan) “Build Back Better World” (B3W) initiative have resolved to forge a partnership to build a ‘values-driven, high-standard, and transparent’ physical, digital, communication, health, technological and financial initiative that would also be resilient and sustainable.
The US has also decided to join hands with the European Union and form the EU-US Trade and Technology Council (TTC) under which both sides plan to expand resilient and sustainable supply chains, and enlarge the scope of cooperation on critical and emerging technologies.
Although China’s assurances that its initiatives under the overarching umbrella of Silk Road complement the development strategies of partner countries through infrastructure development, job creation and catalyzing socio-economic growth, these have caused much trepidation across the world for being “intrusive- coercive-traps’. Similarly, alternative to China’s Belt and Road Initiative being offered by the US, its western partners are not free of encumbrances and attract penalties on account of issues such as human rights, transparency, and more recently over environmental issues such as EU led carbon border tax, a levy on imported carbon-intensive products, and had figured during the recently concluded COP26.
Dr Vijay Sakhuja is Consultant Kalinga International Foundation, New Delhi.