The ongoing war in the Persian Gulf involving Iran, Israel and the United States, has now entered into its third week with no signs of the protagonists cutting back on the frequency and intensity of attacks, it is unlikely to end soon. In fact, even President Trump has reconciled to the idea of prolonged combat engagements in the region and has sought additional $200 billion to remain in good fighting condition for “nearly 145 more days, or through mid-August”. So far the war has been an expensive affair ($16.5 billion within its first 12 days at the rate $2 billion/day in munitions at the beginning of the conflict that has now fallen to about $1 billion per day).

Fear of a prolonged war looms large and there is visible widespread destruction in the region. It is not surprising that investors (Sovereign wealth funds worth $5 trillion belonging to Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and other Gulf countries) have little appetite to remain committed to economic and energy infrastructure; they have been compelled to focus of defence and security. “This region is a hub of the international economy and if it implodes and decides to focus on its defense and to start pulling investments and to stop its [economic] engagement with the international community, the effect will be felt in every household in the economies that are affected by this — and that's almost every economy in the world today.” said spokesperson for Qatar's foreign ministry.

Among the many setbacks, many connectivity infrastructure projects spread across the globe are in jeopardy. In particular, projects in and around the Persian Gulf region including the Caspian Sea (a new area of military engagement by the Israeli Defence Forces) are likely to be put on hold. Some run the risk of cancellation depending on the current state of progress of these projects as also the politico-diplomatic alignments that will emerge from the outcome of the war. However, there will also those that may be insulated from the shocks of the Iran-Israel-United States war such as the Chinese “six corridors, six routes, and multiple countries and ports” under the Belt Road Initiative depending on their geographic location.

There are at least five major connectivity projects connecting Asia and Europe that could be adversely impacted due to the Iran-Israel and the United States war : (a) Eurasian Northern Corridor connecting China to Europe through Russia; (b) Middle Corridor linking China to Europe bypassing Russia (also referred to as Trans-Caspian International Trade Route, or TITR); (c) Development Road project which connects Persian Gulf-Türkiye-Europe); (d) China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC); (e) International North South Transport Corridor (INSTC) connecting India to Russia through Iran; and (f) India Middle East Economic Corridor (IMEC) (India-UAE-Saudi Arabia-Jordan-Israel-European Union) .

The INSTC and IMEC connectivity corridors and the Chabahar Port Project in Iran are crucial for India and attract the adverse impact of the ongoing war. The INSTC has been languishing for over two decades now and been “on and off” for several politico-strategic-economic reasons. It has made little progress since the Russia Ukraine war that is now into its fourth year. Furthermore, Russia is under US sanctions and the countries with commitments to the INSTC are likely to stay away amid fears of sanctions by the US. In particular, Armenia and Azerbaijan who have benefitted from President Donald Trump’s mediated peace agreement between the two countries.  Also, the US secured a 99-year development right for the Zangezur Corridor or the Meghri route which has been rechristened as the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP).

The IMEC is a multi-modal connectivity initiative (United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia, Israel, Italy and Greece), announced by Prime Minister Modi at New Delhi at the G20 Summit in September 2023 is under the threat. The Israeli node i.e. Haifa was subjected to expensive bombardment during June 2025 and multiple attacks in the ongoing war would preclude early recovery to a fully operational status.

The IMEC had gained urgency in under the Joint India-EU Comprehensive Strategic Agenda (January 2026) and it was flagged for deep collaboration to “diversify trade routes, reduce strategic dependencies, promote regional integration, and future-proof supply chains, including support to infrastructure development, maritime, rail, digital, and energy”. The importance of the IMEC was also highlighted in the context of the “EU-Africa-India Digital Corridor” that envisages “Blue Raman submarine cable system to provide ultra-high-speed, secure, and diversified data connectivity resilient to disruptions caused by natural disasters or acts of sabotage”.

Finally, Shahid Beheshti terminal at Iran’s Chabahar Port in which India has invested nearly $120 million and for which U.S. waiver that allowed India to operate the terminal despite sanctions is due to expire this April, can be expected to go into a cold freeze.

Dr. Vijay Sakhuja is former Director National Maritime Foundation, New Delhi and is associated with Kalinga International Foundation, New Delhi.