Adopting a “balanced approach” (environmental-tribal people’s concerns vis a vis strategic importance of the project) and taking cognizance of the Union government’s submission (2024) that the “Great Nicobar Island project is a project of national importance”, the National Green Tribunal (NGT) has finally given clearance to the development of infrastructure at Great Nicobar Island (Galathea Bay, Pemmaya Bay, and Nanjappa Bay). Furthermore, the NGT observed that there were “no good grounds to interfere”. In the above contexts, it is important to elucidate on the “security constraints, economic benefit and strategic advantages” of the GNI and understand the critical necessity for such a project.

First security. The Andaman & Nicobar Islands are over 1200 kilometers from mainland India and are often referred to as the proverbial “Kala Pani” known for the notorious Cellular Jail that housed many Indian freedom fighters. However, the tyranny of geography makes them vulnerable to external aggression. In fact, during World War II, Japan established a military garrison on the islands and stayed on till the end of the war. Thereafter the British controlled the islands. These islands were also sought by Pakistan, and during the 1965 war, Indonesia (under Sukarno) “reportedly offered to help Pakistan seize the Andaman and Nicobar Islands”.

The waters around the islands have had fair share of illegal activities and poaching (marine life) by fishermen from Bay of Bengal littorals in the 1980s particularly Thai trawlers was rampant. Also, the A&N islands are close to the Golden Triangle (Myanmar, Laos and Thailand) known for being the center of gravity of synthetic drugs; Significantly, drugs from Myanmar have “surged (since 2021) across not only East and Southeast Asia, but also increasingly into South Asia, in particular Northeast India”. Recent reports point to footprints of Mexican drug lord Nemesio Ruben Oseguera Cervantes, alias El Mencho, in the Andaman & Nicobar Islands after the discovery of high-grade Methamphetamine from a fishing trawler pointing to a “sophisticated, multi-layered alliance between Mexican and Chinese cartels”.

Second, the economic potential of the infrastructure under consideration. The government has earmarked 81,000-crore for the Great Nicobar Project under which it is planned to develop of International Container Transhipment Terminal (ICTT) to serve as a container transshipment hub; Greenfield International Airport to operate both civilian and military aircraft; Greenfield Township for locals-residents and population that support commercial activities and services; and Gas and Solar-Based Power Plant for energy requirements.

In the initial phase, the ICTT will have capacity to handle nearly 4.0 million TEUs and when fully operational, nearly 16 million TEUs will be serviced. However it merits mention that it will compete with the existing regional container shipping hubs, particularly Singapore, Malaysia (Port Kelang and Tanjung Pelepas), and Colombo, Sri Lanka. These are well established major and popular container transshipment hubs, and the Bay of Bengal littoral countries including India engage in international commerce by transshipments through these ports. Similarly, Kolkata in India, Chittagong in Bangladesh and Yangon in Myanmar handle container traffic but shipping services through these ports are not highly profitable due to constraint of geography i.e. being riverine ports.

The economic benefits of ICTT are quite understandable and can create opportunities to boost short sea shipping in the Bay of Bengal region. In particular, it offers opportunities to link A&N Islands with western Sumatra (Aceh province). Low value products particularly construction material (sand and aggregate) can be cheaply transported from Aceh given that the distance between mainland India to GNI is not only long but also expensive in terms of transportation costs. In the past, the Aceh Chamber of Commerce dispatched an Indonesia merchant vessel KM Aceh Milenium with 150 tonnes of assorted cargo including construction materials (sand, rocks and cement) as a pilot project.

GNI can also be an important link for “India-Indonesia maritime partnership” and is “crucial for the realization of the full potential of India ASEAN Maritime Connectivity vision that aims to deliver economic development in the region and deepen economic integration”.

At another level, GNI infrastructure development will be undertaken under joint venture (JV) by Indian private entity “holding a stake of more than 51 per cent will construct and run the facility for strategic reasons”. More specifically “even if a global tender is floated, only an Indian private company holding a majority stake of 51 per cent or more in the joint venture company should be picked to develop and operate it,”

Third is the strategic importance of the GNI project. It sits astride the sea lane connecting the Straits of Malacca and Hormuz Strait, and therefore is strategically located provide Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA) of the area that witnesses heavy maritime traffic before it enters/exits the Straits of Malacca. It also helps conduct surveillance of vessels inimical to Indian interests. In this context, Indian naval planners are concerned about the growing presence of the Chinese Navy and other dual use marine scientific research vessels in the Indian Ocean.

Finally, the GNI project dovetails into the Sagarmala project of India and contributes to the national Blue Economy which is expected to contribute as much as 8 % to the national GDP.

Dr. Vijay Sakhuja is former Director National Maritime Foundation, New Delhi and is associated with Kalinga International Foundation, New Delhi.