All eyes are now focused on the impending US attack on Iran which has amassed a large Armanda in the region. Meanwhile, US and Iran have been engaged in negotiations in Geneva over Iran’s nuclear programme and Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner had reached an understanding on main “guiding principles”; but that does not mean a deal is about to happen.

However, there have been positive signals from Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi who has indicated that a draft agreement for a “deal” built on the “framework agreed between Iran and the US” is being perused by the highest authorities in Tehran and has hopeful of an authorization over the next few days. Abbas Araghchi also made known that there is no demand by the US for a “zero nuclear enrichment” by Iran and “We have not offered any suspension and the US side has not asked for zero enrichment…What we are now talking about is how to make sure that Iran’s nuclear program, including enrichment, is peaceful and would remain peaceful forever,” 

While these negotiations auger well for both the US, Iran and the global community at large, President Trump remains adamant on limited strikes to pressure Iran for a “fair deal.” During the first Board of Peace meeting in Washington over the issue of development of the Gaza, President Trump promised US$10 billion and Muslim-majority nations offered funding and troops for Gaza, President Trump put out his “dream of bringing lasting harmony to a region tortured by centuries of war, suffering”; but in the same breath, warned Iran that “bad things” would happen if a deal is not reached, and set a two weeks deadline.

As noted earlier, the US has lined up a massive armada including two carrier battle groups in the Indian Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea. It is reported that as many as two dozen ships and nearly 100 fighter jets, and nearly 200 tankers and cargo lift planes are in full operational readiness to commence attack on Iran. US plans surgical operations and therefore there is less deployment of ground troops.

Iran too is prepared for the counter attack and has threatened retaliatory strikes not only against the US but also its allies that are home to US bases and facilities in the region. Qatar, UAE, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait are on high alert. A few days ago it was reported that the location of US air and missile defence system in these countries have been identified by Iran and pictures and maps of these sites were in public domain.

Iran has built a multilayered defence against the impending US attack; mines, missiles, submarines and drones would be its preferred choice to challenge the massive US forces. It has in the past threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz in response to an attack, which would significantly disrupt global oil supply. It is affair to conclude that no shipping would be in a position to enter the Persian Gulf due to fears of being hit by Iranian missiles and drones or being hit by a sea mine. This will result in spiraling of a series of military and naval deployment by many countries who would prefer top escort their flagged vessels transiting in the area. Above all this will result in massive rise in oil prices.

The attack can potentially spill into other regions particularly into the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden where the Houthis have extended full support for Iran. The group has attacked in the past more than 100 vessels in the Red Sea, claiming they were applying pressure on Israel over the war in Gaza. Hezbollah and Hamas, though degraded over the last few years, too could create problems for the US and Israel which is expected to join the US in any attack against Iran.

In essence the repercussions of a US attack will result in a total global chaos that will spill beyond the region. The downfall of Iranian political leadership could result in similar political situation in Iraq, Syria, or Yemen adding to the turmoil.

Meanwhile, not many of the US allies and partners are in support of the US’ plans for attack on Iran. The European Union is urging the US to reconsider its decision to attack Iran and has advised that “Diplomacy must be given a chance” warning that “military escalation would risk having heavy, heavy repercussions for the stability of the region,”

Russia has counseled Trump to take recourse to diplomacy and it announced joint naval drills in the Persian Gulf. Similarly, China has pressed for “de-escalation and restraint” and may have provided intelligence to Iran on the US military buildup in the region including air defence - missile sites in the region.

As far India is concerned, New Delhi too has counseled restraint and promoted negotiations between the antagonists. Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson has observed that New Delhi is “keeping an eye on the situation and staying in constant touch with the Indian community living there,” 

India’s concern over any US led attack against Iran are threefold. First there are over 8 million Indians residing in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and these will require urgent repatriation. Second is Indian investments of nearly US$ 400 million in Chabahar which is an attractive and soft target for the US military. Third is safety and security of the infrastructure associated with the International North South Corridor which connects Mumbai with Bander Abbas. Fourth the impact on oil sourcing. Although New Delhi has been under pressure to not import oil from Iran, the big challenge for India is that over 40% of India’s crude oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz which is going to be a major target for Iran’s counter to US’ military attack.

Dr. Vijay Sakhuja is former Director National Maritime Foundation, New Delhi and is associated with Kalinga International Foundation, New Delhi.