The emerging world order is mired in ‘new geopolitics’ marked by wars, conflicts, sanctions, tariffs, foreign policy choices, economic alignments, and coercive diplomacy. The new alignments-arrangements are resulting in unprecedented geopolitical and geostrategic configuration flavoured with real competition. These are also triggering new “trade connectivity corridors” with global ramifications and are underlined by multi-domain and multimodal connectivity strategies. At least four connectivity corridors, both new and old merit attention.

First, the Transarctic Transport Corridor (TTC), an integrated transport system combining sea, rail, and road, connects multiple geographies and regions. Speaking at the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, President Vladimir Putin proclaimed that the TTC is a geoeconomics and a geopolitical tool for strengthening Russian influence in the Asian-Eurasian region including the inland water bodies and contiguous maritime spaces thereby “accelerating infrastructure investment, and sharpening geopolitical rivalry”.

The TTC is envisaged to be a counter to the Middle Corridor (the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route) whose “importance rose in 2022–2024 amid sanctions and security risks around Russia-centric routes”. According to the Nikolai Patrushev, Assistant to the President and Chairman of the Maritime Board of Russia “Amid the growing geopolitical tension and confrontation with collective West countries, free access to the world’s oceans is of special significance to Russia. To this end, it is important to reinforce the country’s transport framework and build a seamless transport system by ensuring interconnected and uninterrupted functioning of sea, rail, road, and inland water modes of transport”.  

At the heart of the TTC is the Northern Sea Route (NSR) which cuts across the Arctic region along the Russian coast line. Since the summer-autumn navigation season began from June 2025, shipping through the Northern Sea Route (NSR) has witnessed a positive trend. According to satellite AIS data on vessel movements, till 31 August there have been 52 voyages by ships (17 completed; 10 nearing completion, 12 currently within the NSR area, and 13 recently initiated voyages). These vessels transported approximately 1.3 million tons. Among these are 13 tankers, 10 bulk carriers, 9 general cargo and 10 container vessels besides fishing vessels and other. These trends are expected to continue till September, October, and, for some vessels well into November indicating that the overall outlook is positive this year too.

In the above contexts, the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), connecting Mumbai-Chabahar Port and St Petersburg was considered highly promising and Iranian Ambassador to Russia Kazem Jalali observed that the “North-South corridor is a great option to replace the Suez Canal with a reduction in travel times to 20 days and savings of up to 30 percent,”

Similarly, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin was upbeat and announced that Moscow’s plan to invest 280 billion rubles (about USD 3.5 billion) until 2030 in the development of the INSTC. However, the INSTC is languishing due to multiple reasons including geopolitical and geostrategic contestation particularly between Iran-Russia (under sanctions) and the US led west. The dynamic nature of geopolitics of the Caucuses region may have further pushed the INSTC to the backburner.

Second, the Zangezur Corridor, which connects separated territories and populations of Armenia and Azerbaijan (Nakhchivan exclave), attracted US’ attention. In August 2025, President Donald Trump mediated between the two countries and facilitated peace agreement . He even extracted a new name for the Zangezur Corridor or the Meghri route i.e. Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity, (TRIPP) under which the US secured a 99-year development right by initiatives such as connectivity infrastructure (rail and Road), energy pipelines and digital cables. Although President Trump can be credited with brokering a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the political, financial, investments, and technical details of the corridor including the timelines are yet to be announced.

It is not surprising that Iran has expressed “security concerns over a potential US or NATO presence near its borders”.  Although Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has tried to assure Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian that “Roads passing through Armenia will be under the exclusive jurisdiction of Armenia, and security will be provided by Armenia, not by any third country”, Tehran is not convinced. It has warned that it would block the project including the US driven peace accord .

General Yadollah Javani, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) deputy commander for political affairs warned that the move could even result in “united Iran, Russia, China, and India against Baku and Yerevan”. However, Azerbaijan and Turkey view the agreement as a breakthrough in regional integration and a major opportunity for economic connectivity. In essence, TRIPP has heightened instability in the South Caucasus.

Continue reading “Asian Connectivity Corridors Mired in (new) Geopolitical Realities: Part 2”

Dr. Vijay Sakhuja is Professor and Head, Center of Excellence for Geopolitics and International Studies (CEGIS), REVA University, Bengaluru and is associated with Kalinga International Foundation, New Delhi.