The 32 members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) met last month in June at the 2025 NATO Summit in The Hague, Netherlands. This high-profile gathering took place in the midst of intense geopolitical turmoil ravaging across Eurasia marked by Russia Ukraine which is in its third year; the ongoing Israeli Hamas conflict that has seen over 50,000 people dead; and the brief 12-day non-contact kinetic encounter between Israel and Iran targeted against Iranian nuclear infrastructure with active involvement of the US.

One of the key highlights of the June NATO Summit was President Donald Trump succeeded in extracting a commitment by the member states to enhance annual defence spending to 5 % of respective GDP (3.5 % on defence and 1.5 % military infrastructure) by 2035. In fact, NATO Secretary General too had been nudging the alliance members to increase respective defence budgets. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk also joined the chorus and supported increased defense spending by NATO allies.

There are at least three reasons which made the NATO members yield to US pressures despite huge reluctance among the alliance members. First, since his first presidency, President Trump had been warning NATO allies against freeriding on the US for their security. He had consistently warned them that they must share the burden of Euro-Atlantic security and even threatened to withdraw troops. However, the pressure eased during President Joe Biden’s administration who acceded to the US strategic and security community arguments that Euro-Atlantic alliance was critical to keep Russia under check. But with President Trump’s return to power, Alliance members have been under pressure once again.

Second, the Alliance countries are cognizant of the fact that they themselves are unprepared to take responsibly of the defence of the Euro-Atlantic space. A study by the London based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) concluded that European allies including Britain and Canada, will require to replace major US military platforms as also an estimated 128,000 troops would be needed. According to United States European Command (EUCOM), nearly 84,000 US servicemen are stationed in Europe and bulk of them are in Germany (40,000), Poland (14,000), Italy (13,000) and the UK (10,000) with the rest scattered across the continent from Norway to Turkey. The European allies would also need to train command and control professional, reconstitute operational and logistic networks, and address shortfalls in intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance assets with the US withdrawal. There are several other military related issues including administrative and organisational architecture too would need to be addressed. The IISS study has placed a very high price tag of approximately US$ 1 trillion (€870 billion) to replace US’ contribution to NATO and substitute with the European assets.

Third, the European defence industry is ill equipped to indigenously produce the large NATO inventory of military platforms, equipment and ammunitions. Also, it does not have strong logistic base to pursue a long drawn war. What was first assessed as a short and swift war between Russia and Ukraine has now entered into the third year and Moscow has stood steady despite logistic constraints (weapons, platforms and ammunitions). It got support of North Korea to send troops and munitions including missiles. It is now believed that some Chinese soldiers are undergoing training in Russia. According to Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence Directorate (HUR), “The Kremlin has decided to allow Chinese military personnel to study and adopt the combat experience Russia has gained in its war against Ukraine”.

Meanwhile, the European Commission’s ‘ReArm Europe’ programme, or ‘Readiness 2030’, that seeks to mobilize must be pursued. The member states are unanimous and have offered “strong support for boosting Europe's defence”. The leaders are convinced that Russia's war on Ukraine and its impact on European security is an “existential [threat] for the EU” and they must strengthen “defence capabilities” as well as “enhance” EU’s “autonomy in responding to current and future security threats”. This is an opportunity to reinvigorate the European military industrial complex as well as option to fill inventories by buying from non-US producers.

Although President Trump may have returned home triumphant after pressurizing the European members to increase their defence spending to 5 percent of the GDP, they were able to obtain renewed commitments from the US on collective defense under Article 5 of the NATO.

Dr. Vijay Sakhuja is associated with Kalinga International Foundation, New Delhi.