The Arctic cruise season has begun and a number of tour operators have announced exclusive and memorable adventure in the region. Multiple voyages including personalized experiences are planned which are tempting visitors with extraordinary experience of the icy deserts, massive glaciers, and breathtaking wilderness in the Arctic from the comforts of luxury and safety.

Likewise, it is time for international shipping to set sail across the Arctic waters particularly along the Northern Sea Route (NSR) which is largely controlled by Russia. The NSR is highly navigable during summer and autumn i.e. from July 1 to November 30 when the ice has receded or has thinned. Rosatom, the state-controlled nuclear energy firm which controls the Russian icebreaker fleet and is in charge of operations, is confident that the traffic during the current sailing period can be expected to increase by about 50 percent by foreign vessels. It has received (as of 27 May 2025) 196 applications for voyage permissions /assistance. There are clear indicators for an upward trend in international shipping interest in NSR and according to Rosatom, in 2025, “foreign companies are expected to conduct at least 1.5 times more voyages through NSR compared to the previous year,”

The cargo volume through the NSR in 2024 hit a record of nearly 38 million tons up from 35 million tons in 2023 clearly suggesting that the NSR is gaining both popularity and importance for global trade. In terms of direction of trade, it was primarily East to West i.e. Russia to China accounting for 2.9 million tons which corresponds to 95% of all transported cargo. In the East West direction, i.e. China to Russia the cargo totaled approximately 0.12 million tons i.e. about 4%. Interestingly, the movement of cargo between ports in Russia was less than 1% accounting for only 0.025 million tons.  It is to be noted that bulk of Russia-China trade takes places along the NSR. Russia exports bulk cargo and China in turn sends out containerized cargo.

For China the NSR is important from at least three perspectives. First, Chinese shipping can deliver cargo to Europe over a shorter time i.e. voyage from Dalian, China, to Rotterdam, the Netherland along the NSR takes around 33 days, as opposed to the 48 days via the Suez Canal. This explains the advantages of the NSR, although it is limited to during summer and autumn when the ice has receded or has thinned.

It is for this reason that China is keen to develop the Polar Silk Route similar to the Maritime Silk Route which follows the traditional route linking the Pacific Ocean and the India Ocean (South China Sea- Strait of Malacca-Suez Canal). In recent times this route witnessed many challenges such as piracy in the Gulf of Aden, more recently attack on international shipping by the Houthis and the incident involving the container ship EVER Green that ran aground due to strong winds and a sandstorm and blocked the canal from 23 - 29 March 2021 that cost the global economy nearly US$ 400 million per hour. 

Second, China has scientific interests in the Arctic on account of climate change impacts which it must take into consideration when planning agriculture, industry, infrastructure, and human development programmes. Given that the Arctic ice melting is closely associated with permafrost, Inner Mongolia and the northern foothills of the Himalayas in regions such as Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are adversely impacted. It not only affects the ecosystem in these areas, there are numerous strategic–military-connectivity infrastructure that could potentially undergo severe degradation due to melting of the permafrost.

Third, China has military interest in the Arctic and has labelled itself as a "near-Arctic state". It remains alert to the military related infrastructure and operations of both Russia and the US that are pursuing aggressive militarization and posing competition to dominate the region. China is building necessary capabilities to operate in the Arctic region with or without Russia and had deployed three icebreakers in the Arctic in 2024. The US is concerned about the growing levels of military cooperation between the two powers. In this context, the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Arctic and Global Resilience has noted that “China’s growing influence on Russia and its increasing military presence in the Arctic presents a clear and imminent threat,” to the United States.

It is fair to argue that China sees the Arctic region as an opportunity for both economic (raw materials and resources) and military power projection purposes. The NSR also helps China to overcome its ‘Malacca Dilemma’. In essence, the China’s engagement in the Arctic region helps it balance its geopolitical, geoeconomics and geostrategic interests as also empower it to catapult itself into the league of key player in the governance of the Arctic.

Dr. Vijay Sakhuja is Professor and Head, Center of Excellence for Geopolitics and International Studies (CEGIS), REVA University, Bengaluru and is associated with Kalinga International Foundation, New Delhi.