President Lai Ching-te completed one year in office on 20 May 2025, a period that was marked by near-continuous aggressive Chinese military posturing. In his speech on the occasion, he reiterated call for “peace” and “dialogue” with China, and conveyed to Beijing that his country is “willing to engage in exchanges and cooperation with China, as long as there is mutual dignity”. President Lai also sought “replace containment with engagement, and confrontation with dialogue” with China; however he cautioned that “Preparing for war is the best way to prevent it.”

Meanwhile there is no letup in People’s Liberation Army (PLA) exercises targeted against Taiwan. In April 2025, at a time when President Lai was nearing completion of one year in office, the PLA carried out Strait Thunder-2025A over two days. These exercises were perhaps the largest since the Joint Sword-2024 exercises conducted in May and October 2024 and the December 2024 naval manoeuvers “aimed at strengthening the PLA Navy’s winter far-sea operational capabilities”.

At another level, Taiwan has been under pressure from the US over tariffs which President Lai has optimistically labeled as “frictions between friends”. These have since been reduced to 10 % from 32 % for 90 days to allow for trade negotiations. President Lai’s optimism over reduction in tariffs by the US is best understood from his observation that “even if there are differences of opinion, as long as there is a foundation of trust and sincere dialogue, they can understand each other better and deepen their friendship,”

Meanwhile there have been calls in the United States to designate Taiwan as “NATO Plus” partner. Republican Pete Ricketts of Nebraska and Democrat Chris Coons of Delaware made a proposal for legislation which came to be known as the PORCUPINE Act to include Taiwan in the “NATO Plus” group to enable “streamline the process for arms sales to Taiwan regulated by the Arms Export Control Act”.

More recently, Congress members Rick Scott (Florida) and Scott Perry introduced a new bill seeking to designate Taiwan as a “NATO Plus” partner of the United States so that it may “enjoy the same privileges as Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand and Israel.” It is noted that the “Taiwan PLUS Act will cut red tape and make it faster and easier for Taiwan to purchase the weapons it needs from the U.S. to defend itself should Communist China invade,". The Bill comes on close heels of U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio call for “reforms to the Foreign Military Sales program were needed to address delays in sales and financing deals”.

North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) too has been vocal of about China threat to Taiwan. Last year in January 2024 NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg in a press conference statement along with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated that “today it’s Ukraine; tomorrow it could be Taiwan,” In December 2024, new NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte accused China of “bullying Taiwan”.

It has been argued that NATO’s engagement during a China Taiwan crisis could be in at least three scenarios. First, “Direct Military Support” through deployment of NATO member forces in the region; second, “Humanitarian Assistance” under the UN in the form of Peacekeeping forces or in time catastrophic events such as natural disasters necessitating humanitarian aid. The third will be in the form of non-direct military involvement for the purpose of “Diplomatic and Economic Sanctions” by “positioning the alliance as a significant player in Indo-Pacific geopolitics”.

It is not surprising that China is concerned about NATO expansion in the Asia Pacific and its growing engagements with Australia, Japan, Republic of Korea and New Zealand or the Indo Pacific 4 (IP4). These countries had participated in 75th NATO summit. In a veiled threat, Beijing cautioned NATO to “stop interfering in China’s internal politics and smearing China’s image, and not create chaos in the Asia-Pacific after creating turmoil in Europe,”

Many of the NATO partners are under pressure from the US to increase defence spending. Secretary-General Mark Rutte is hoping to convince NATO allies over a “new defense spending benchmark of 5 percent of GDP” i.e. 3.5 percent of GDP on “hard military spending” and 1.5 percent of GDP on “related spending such as infrastructure, cyber security and other things" over the next seven years”.

While US Congressmen Push for Taiwan as “NATO Plus” partner, NATO may not have the appetite to make commitments of engaging Taiwan through military aid like the US , given that their current focus is on deterring Russia which is at its doorstep in Ukraine.

Dr. Vijay Sakhuja is Professor and Head, Center of Excellence for Geopolitics and International Studies (CEGIS), REVA University, Bengaluru and is associated with Kalinga International Foundation, New Delhi.