President Donald Trump’s “warnings of further punitive measures” to dissuade India from sourcing its energy requirements from Russia are expected to have limited impact on national energy security. The Chairman of the Indian Oil Limited has observed that “whatever sanctions are there, we are abiding by them,”. Besides, India has established a diverse network of energy suppliers to meet requirements including from both OPEC and OPEC+, as also non-OPEC countries such as the Persian Gulf, Guyana, Brazil, and the US.  Furthermore, according to Hardeep Singh Puri, the Union Minister, the number of oil suppliers for India has increased from the existing 27 to 39 which means more oil will be available to India including the possibility of US supplementing the demand.  The Minister assured that that there will be “no shortage of oil”. While the above assurances are for the current state of energy requirements in India, another plausible source i.e. TAPI (Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India) natural gas pipeline which had been put into the back burner is shaping up. The pipeline is expected to runs for 1,814 kilometers through Turkmenistan (214 kilometers), Afghanistan (774 kilometers), and Pakistan (826 kilometers) before reaching Fazilka at the India-Pakistan border in Punjab.

It was assessed that the pipeline, when completed, will transport nearly 33 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas. The project will be managed by TAPI Pipeline Company Limited in which Turkmengas state gas has 85 % shares and the other three shareholders i.e. Afghan Gas Corporation, Pakistan's Inter State Gas Systems (Private) Limited, and India's GAIL each hold 5 % shares each.

In September 2024, Afghanistan and Turkmenistan agreed to speed up the construction of the TAPI pipeline. By December 2024, the Turkmenistan part of the pipeline had been completed and Turkmengaz, the state-owned energy company, announced that it was ready for operation. The Taliban government has also begun construction of the Afghan section of TAPI. It is estimated that the pipeline is expected to generate nearly $400 million annually in revenue from the project for the Afghan government. In Pakistan, the Inter State Gas Systems is upbeat that the pipeline will further augment the country's energy security and economic growth..

India appears to be pursuing a “wait and watch” strategy given that there is not much excitement in Delhi over the resumption in construction of the TAPI. Also, this pipeline has not found much reference in the routine energy related articulations by the political leadership or during discussions with the Taliban government which were held in January 2025.

There are at least three important reasons for India’s “wait and watch” approach with regard to TAPI. First, and perhaps the top most, is the lack of trust between India and Pakistan which precludes any discussions on such transboundary projects after New Delhi’s disappointment with the Iran-Pakistan India (IPI) pipeline proposal. The two South Asian neighbours have fought three major wars and the latter has pursued sponsoring and promoting terrorism in the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir as a State policy.

Second, in 2019 Islamabad decided to discontinue trading with India According to Indian Foreign Minister Dr. S Jaishankar, India “did not stop trading” and it was Pakistan’s “ decision to not continue trading with us," Similarly, there is the issue of Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status. India has accorded MFN status to Pakistan and is yet to receive it as a principle of reciprocity. Also, since 2024, according to Jaishankar, there have been neither any talks on trade, nor any initiative from Pakistan.

Third, is about weaponization of the TAPI. There is fear that lurks at the back of New Delhi’s mind that Pakistan has a strong proclivity to and leverage the pipeline to advantage in any future conflict or even when it comes under intense pressure from New Delhi over its involvement in terrorism in the country. It is not farfetched to imagine that it may cut off the gas supply and create en energy crisis. The disruption of Russian gas supplies to Europe is a stark reminder of the vulnerability of the TAPI. The inability of Pakistani government to provide security to the infrastructure associated with the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) all as to the Chinese personnel engaged in the related projects, adds another dimension to the TAPI pipeline security.

Meanwhile, Kazakhstan is interested in joining the TAPI consortium, and according to Kazakhstan’s Energy Ministry, the state owned gas company QazaqGaz is negotiating with Turkmengaz in the construction of TAPI pipeline.

Dr. Vijay Sakhuja is Professor and Head, Center of Excellence for Geopolitics and International Studies (CEGIS), REVA University, Bengaluru and is associated with Kalinga International Foundation, New Delhi.