There are fears that politically unstable and economically weak countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America could gravitate towards the China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea (CRINK) block to seek aid-assistance and in some cases regime recognition. In return, these countries could support CRINK to challenge the US led hegemonic international order. There are reasons to believe that Pakistan could be one of them given that Islamabad’s relevance to US’ foreign policy is declining which would prompt it to seek support from CRINC block.

First, Islamabad has been in the cross hair of US for sponsoring terrorism notwithstanding the fact that it had supported the US to fight against the Taliban in Afghanistan. In 2017, during his first term, President Donald Trump had accused Pakistan of alleged support for insurgent groups and announced that the US cannot overlook the fact that Pakistan is a safe havens for terrorist organisations including the Taliban and other groups across the globe. Soon thereafter, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson warned Pakistan that it could be “stripped” of the “status of major non-NATO US ally”. Now that President Trump is back for his second term, Islamabad could feel the pressure from the US Administration.

Islamabad has also earned the displeasure of the US over the conviction of 25 civilians by a military tribunal for their involvement in 2023 riots. The State Department has accused Pakistan of lacking “judicial independence, transparency, and due process guarantees”. Meanwhile, Pakistan Foreign office has defended the verdict and put out a statement that the country’s legal system is robust and aligned with “international human rights law”.

Second is Pakistan’s track record in proliferation of strategic weapons. The outgoing Biden Administration, through the Executive Order 13382 (proliferation of WMDs and delivery systems) has imposed sanctions against four Pakistani entities i.e. the Islamabad based National Development Complex (NDC), and Akhtar and Sons Private Limited, Affiliates International,  and Rockside Enterprise located in Karachi. US Deputy National Security Advisor Jon Finer has accused Pakistan of proliferating “increasingly sophisticated missile technology” calling out Pakistan’s actions as “emerging threat to the United States”. Washington’s accusations and decision has infuriated Islamabad who has labelled these as “unfortunate and biased”.

Third, growing bonhomie between Pakistan and Russia has irked the US. Pakistan has argued that its policy is that of not being part of any alliance or block, and engage in business with all excluding India and Israel. Islamabad and Moscow are exploring vistas for greater cooperation in trade which exceeded US$1 billion in 2024, and investments in infrastructure particularly road and rail connectivity projects is growing. As far as the energy sector is concerned, Pakistan is seeking Russian technical assistance to upgrade Pakistan Refinery Limited as well as investment in offshore oil and gas exploration. Closely associated is the issue of Pakistan obtaining Russian crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) at discounted price. However, Pakistan’s refineries are technically deficient in refining Russian oil. Perhaps the biggest challenge for Pakistan is to find a legal way to thwart US and EU sanctions against Russia.

Fourth is Pakistan’s relations with Iran which has attracted US’ diplomatic wrath. The US Department of State warned Islamabad that energy business deals with Iran have the “potential risk of sanctions.” There is also the Iranian warning that it would “demand an $18 billion penalty from Pakistan if the case goes to arbitration” if work on the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline (IPGP) or the Peace Pipeline is not started. IPGP project is critical for Pakistan’s energy needs as also economic stability; “it is more than a pipeline”. Islamabad could potentially leverage the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) through Russia to “garner collective support for energy cooperation” among the grouping.

Fifth, Pakistan has been canvassing to join the International North South Corridor (INSTC). A glimmer of hope has arisen and Pakistan announced that a test freight train between the two countries will run the INSTC route though Azerbaijan and Iran in March 2025. It will use the existing railway networks and it will take 2-3 weeks for the cargo to reach Taftan station in Pakistan. This will also give Russia access to Pakistani ports and engage in international commerce.

Six is the All-Weather Strategic Cooperative Partnership between Pakistan China that spans multiple sectors led by the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and a robust military cooperation programme. It is widely known that China has provided Pakistan with missile technology as well as nuclear technology.

The US China rivalry can be expected to intensify during Trump 2.0 presidency. Washington will question Islamabad’s dependence on China from which it is unable to extricate at this stage. This can potentially push Pakistan into CRINK camp.

https://www.stimson.org/2024/trumps-victory-poses-several-challenges-for-pakistan/

Dr. Vijay Sakhuja is Professor and Head, Center of Excellence for Geopolitics and International Studies (CEGIS), REVA University, Bengaluru and is associated with Kalinga International Foundation, New Delhi.