The third consecutive China Indian Ocean Region Forum (CIORF) on Blue Economy Development Cooperation has ended with UNDP Resident Representative in China, Beate Trankmann assuring the hosts that the UN body will “continue working with China” as also with other countries to “safeguard and restore critical ecosystems, including the oceans, and embed sustainable development in the blue economy”. The 2024 iteration of the CIORF titled “Future of the Blue Indian Ocean: Development Practice of the Global South” was held in Kunming, Yunnan Province and was attended by over three hundred delegates representing over fifty countries and international organizations.

In his remarks at the event, Luo Zhaohui, who leads the China International Development Cooperation Agency and the chief host of the Forum flagged "Blue", "Action", and "Unity" as the “aim of the Forum” and highlighted the priority accorded to Blue Economy in China which also resonated with the United Nations 2030 Sustainable Development Goals, the Ocean Decade, the Global Development Initiative, and the African Union Agenda 2063. 

Blue Economy or ocean economy is high on the priority of the Chinese government’s national agenda. This is best understood from the fact that the marine economy is expected to grow at about 8 per cent of national GDP during the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-2025). China's marine industries output in 2023 was nearly US$ 1.39 trillion and during the January-June period of 2024, the gross output was US$ 678.55 billion, up 5.6 percent year-on-year basis. There is no doubt that China is a leader in the development of Blue Economy.  

Zhao Fengtao, who is the deputy head of the China International Development Cooperation Agency observed that China is “driving development for countries in the Global South, particularly nations in the Indian Ocean and small island developing countries”. China’s focus on “Global South” is driven by its belief that it can “foster shared ideals” notwithstanding the political diversity among these countries. It sees multiple benefits by engaging the Global South through trade. For instance Chinese exports to Southeast Asia, Central Asia, Africa, and the BRICS countries exceeded those to the developed nations such as US, EU and Japan.

Earlier, in November 2024, during the G20 Summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, China unveiled eight initiatives to support the Global South, including advancing technology connectivity and cooperating on poverty reduction, food security, and climate change. 

Currently 17 Indian Ocean countries have “normalized cooperation mechanisms” with China in multiple sectors “including biodiversity and disaster reduction, remote sensing, maritime monitoring and research”. At the 3rd CIOFR, China also announced projects and signed agreements with Pakistan and the Maldives for “early warning and response to climate-induced disasters”.

While these are laudable, there is always a fear lurking in the minds of the people of recipient nations about China’s hidden agenda. This is best seen from the strong opposition to the presence of Chinese workers in Pakistan particularly in the restive Baluchistan region. There are thousands of Chinese workers in Pakistan for the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) which involves investments in projects valued at nearly US$ 60 billion under the Belt Road Initiative (BRI) announced in 2013.

Chinese technicians working on infrastructure project in Pakistan have come under attack forcing China to “negotiate a joint security management system” with Pakistan for the safety of its nationals. Consequently, troops from both sides have conducted joint counterterrorism military exercise. There is also a belief among the Pakistani’s that China is confronted with “live or leave” dilemma. It is not in a position to “wind down its projects and leave Pakistan” since the “billion-dollars investment is too big to pause. China is here to stay.”

Similarly, many Chinese infrastructure projects spread across the globe under the BRI have attracted public scrutiny due to a number of factors particularly the “debt trap” that is labelled “predatory”. China has vehemently argued that the BRI and other similar initiatives are for the development of the recipient nations and called these as “good path of prosperity, characterized by shared economic growth, complementary trade, and closer people-to-people connections”. Besides, the BRI is also “strengthening cultural and people-to-people exchanges among the peoples” of the partner countries. For instance the China-Europe Freight Train addressed as a “steel camel fleet” connects Chongqing in China to Europe through a multimodal transport network of rail and water transport. It covers more than two hundred cities in 25 European countries across Eurasia.

The BRI, glorified as “six corridors, six routes, and multiple countries and ports” is also mired in geopolitical contestation showcased by the G7 led Build Back Better World Initiative, Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII) & India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) , the Blue Dot Network (BDN) and India driven Bilateral Debt Restructuring.

It remains to be seen how the CIORF can successfully navigate the negative labeling of the BRI, and deliver on President Xi Jinping vision of “building bridges for common development of China and the world”.

Dr. Vijay Sakhuja is Professor and Head, Center of Excellence for Geopolitics and International Studies (CEGIS), REVA University, Bengaluru and is associated with Kalinga International Foundation, New Delhi.