There is both urgency and pressure to spend more on defence by NATO Member States. In his two successive speeches and remarks, Secretary General Mark Rutte has urged the Alliance to increase defence spending. There are at least four reasons that have triggered Rutte to encourage Alliance members to spend more on defence.

First, earlier this month, in his remarks at the NATO Foreign Minister’s Meeting Rutte pointedly accused Russia and China of their attempts to “destabilize” NATO Member countries through acts of “sabotage, cyber-attacks, and energy blackmail”. The nexus between Russia, China, Iran and North Korea (CRINK) is a worrisome development for the Alliance members. Russia is brazenly assisting the North Korean missile and nuclear programme and it could impact on the stability of the Korean Peninsula as also “threaten the United States”. Under the circumstances, Rutte emphasised that to maintain the “current level of deterrence” the Member states must enhance spending for defence.

Second, in his remarks in Brussels on 12 December 2024 at an event hosted by Carnegie Europe, Rutte urged the Allies to think of current situation as wartime and “turbo charge” the Alliance “defence production and defence spending.” Furthermore, if the Member States did not “spend more together now to prevent war”, the future may not be as bright and the Alliance members may have to pay a “higher price later to fight it.” He cautioned that Russian economy was focused on war and in 2025, the country could spend nearly 7% to 8% of the GDP “if not more” which is nearly one third of the state budget and perhaps the “highest level since the Cold War”.  

Third, although the NATO Member States collectively spend 2 percent of the GDP on defence, this according to Rutte, is insufficient given that one third of the Alliance countries still do not meet up the requirements as agreed to. The UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy too has joined Rutte and called on the Alliance to “act now” and urged “all allies across the NATO family to get serious about defence spending.” US Secretary of State too has appealed that “This is a time for every ally to lean in, not lean back.” 

Fourth, there is pressure from US President elect Donald Trump who has been “rebuking” the NATO on regular basis to do more for their defence i.e. increase defence spending. In 2020, during a conversation Donald Trump told European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen that “if Europe is under attack, we will never come to help you and to support you. And by the way, NATO is dead. And we will leave, we will quit NATO”.

Earlier this year, in a speech in South Carolina as part of his election campaign, Donald Trump, in his usual flamboyant style made the statement that “I would not protect you [NATO]. In fact, I would encourage [the Russians] to do whatever the hell they want”. This statement attracted strong reactions from across the globe particularly from the Alliance member States who argued that Trump was undermining the “solidarity” of the Alliance.

In his commentary on “trump proofing” the NATO, Tom Bateman, a BBC State Department correspondent notes that the former US President has exhibited “ outright hostility” against the Alliance and labelled the Europeans as sponging off US taxpayers money for protection. Trump’s positions on NATO has been called as “cunning negotiating tactic “ to coerce NATO members into meeting defence spending targets.

Now that Trump is back in office with a thumping majority for his second term, the NATO would be under immense pressure to increase defence spending. In November 2024, Mark Rutte met President elect Donald Trump in Florida and they “discussed the range of global security issues facing the Alliance.” The details of the discussions between the two have not been made public, but it fair to assume that Trump would have insisted that Alliance members spend more on defence. Recalling the Cold War, Rutte has stated that at that time, the “Europeans spent far more than 3% of their GDP on defense,” and “we are going to need a lot more than 2%,”

Trumps insistence and Ruttes expectations that NATO member states spend more is an ambitious and unsustainable target. In case both fail, the whole notion of collective security i.e. “all for one and one for all” as envisaged under Articles 5 and 6 wherein the member states of the Alliance are expected to come to its defence, may be in jeopardy. Meanwhile, 23 of the 32 members of the Alliance are expected to achieve the 2% target in 2024.

Dr. Vijay Sakhuja is Professor and Head, Center of Excellence for Geopolitics and International Studies (CEGIS), REVA University, Bengaluru and is associated with Kalinga International Foundation, New Delhi.