Earlier this month, President Lai Ching-te made state visits to Pacific Island states of Marshall Islands, Tuvalu, and the Republic of Palau, three of the 11 countries with whom Taiwan maintains diplomatic ties. Enroute President Lai touched down at two US’ territories of Guam and in Hawaii President Lai held telephone-video conversation with Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi and other “Friends of Taiwan” including Speaker of the US House of Representatives Mike Johnson. The President discussed issues of mutual interest including “semiconductor industry, AI, and China’s military threat to Taiwan”.

The Indo-Pacific Security Supplemental Appropriations Act (passed by Congress in April 2024) also found reference in the conversations and was flagged as “extremely important in helping Taiwan and other Indo-Pacific allies safeguard regional peace and stability”. The Bill provides authorization to the US government for “providing replacements or reimbursements for defense articles and services” to Taiwan and those countries which support Taiwan.

President Lai Ching-te was assured that “Taiwan’s security is the core of US Indo-Pacific strategy” and Washington’s commitment to the “annual National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) to strengthen the US response to China and help Taiwan bolster its defense capabilities”.

At the heart of Taiwan US relations is the 25 year old Taiwan Relations Act which commits the US to make available to Taiwan self-defense capabilities. It also empowers the US Administration to decide on Taiwan’s “future of by other than peaceful means”; however, the TRA falls short of involving itself directly in the defense of the island in case it is attacked.

Taiwan has received military equipment and service support from the US on regular basis. Since 1950, various Administrations have authorized sale that total up to nearly $50 billion (2022) and it ranks fourth below Saudi Arabia ($164 billion), Israel ($53) and Japan ($53). In 2022, the US Congress passed a legislation which enabled Taiwan to get weapons from the US’ defense stocks under the Presidential Drawdown Authority. However military equipment worth over $20 billion is still pending (August 2024) which includes fighter aircraft.

During the first Trump Administration (2016-2020), Taiwan benefited from “record arms sales” as well as regularization of the “arms sales process” that “previously had been bundled into packages”. Trump authorized transits through the Taiwan Strait on routine basis and even publicized these much to the angst of China. The Biden Administration too was proactive and “new instruments for security assistance” such as the “Foreign Military Financing (FMF) and the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA)” were established. He also encouraged partner countries (Australia, Canada, Germany, Japan, New Zealand and the UK) to undertake naval transits through the Taiwan Strait which attracted demarches from China. These countries defended that were exercising navigational rights and freedom as envisaged in the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).

The US also invited Taiwan to join the Partnership for Indo-Pacific Industrial Resilience (PIPIR) , a 13 member grouping who have agreed to develop resilient military supply chains through co-development, coproduction [or] co-sustainment of weapons. The Taiwanese Deputy Minister of National Defense Hsu Yen-pu participated in the October PIPIR meeting in Hawaii. Under the PIPIR, Taiwan can be expected to build drones. At the defence industry conference relating to the US and Taiwan, it was announced that the US is looking to allies and partners to “jump-start collaborations” and US companies were in Taiwan scouting for unmanned aerial systems (UAS) and counter-UAS business opportunities. This is seen as a “crucial step in helping Taiwan develop its indigenous manufacturing capacity in such systems”. However, Taiwan has recently purchased 1000 killer drones valued at $163.9 million from the US to build up its asymmetric warfare capabilities.

In 2025, Taiwan will spend 2.45 percent of national gross domestic product (US$20.24 billion/NT$647 billion) on defense compared to 2.50 percent in 2023 and 2024. The MND may earmark a special budget (NT$ 90.4 billion) to acquire equipment for the air force and the navy; however there are no plans to build additional submarines for which a proposal is pending before the Taiwanese government. The above allocation by Taiwan is comparable to some of the NATO member states particularly the UK (2.5 percent) and France (2.0 percent) of GDP.

In an interview with Bloomberg Businessweek, President elect Donald Trump did not hesitate to tell that Taiwan should pay to the US for its defence being an insurance but it does not reciprocate.

President Trump can be expected to be more demanding from Taipei particularly in the defence sector. He will surely persuade Taiwan to increase defence spending and acquire more weaponry from the US. However, Taiwan would do well to ward such pressures by offering more under the PIPR.

Dr. Vijay Sakhuja is Professor and Head, Center of Excellence for Geopolitics and International Studies (CEGIS), REVA University, Bengaluru and is associated with Kalinga International Foundation, New Delhi.