General Christian Badia’s, NATO’s Deputy Chief of Allied Command Transformation, assertion that the “confrontation with Russia is not just ‘Cold War 2.0’; Here we are talking about a new world order” wherein Russia now has the support of countries, ostensibly referring to China, Iran and North Korea who “want to challenge Western dominance.” Furthermore, it is “waging a hybrid war against the West” which could potentially escalate and spread into “too many grey areas and a resulting miscalculation is the biggest risk,” Earlier, in September 2024, Sergey Lavrov, Russia’s Foreign Minister had accused NATO of “waging” a hybrid war against Russia by “using the hands of Ukrainians”.

General Christian Badia’s fears about an emerging “new world order” could be based on the recent Russian decision to launch an experimental ballistic missile against Ukraine. This is the first ever use of such a missile in the ongoing war that began on 24 February 2022 and has now crossed the 1000 day mark. The missile ‘Oreshnik’ or ‘RS-26 Rubezh’ has range of over 3000 kilometers and was launched from Kapustin Iar base at Astrakhan Oblast in the north of the Caspian Sea at a Ukrainian military site in Dnipro. It was fitted with a dummy warhead and it landed on ground and there wasn’t any explosion.

Also, Moscow had informed Washington about the impending launch of the missile to prevent any “misunderstanding” that would attract “retaliation and nuclear escalation”. According to Dmitry Peskov, a Kremlin spokesperson “The alert was sent automatically 30 minutes before the launch," and Pentagon deputy spokesperson Sabrina Singh confirmed that they were “ briefly notified before the launch via nuclear risk reduction channels”.

The Russian decision to inform the United States prior to launching the missile should be seen from the prism of the 1987 intermediate-range nuclear forces (INF) treaty between US and Soviet Union which entered into force on 01 June 1988. Both sides agreed to remove “ground-launched ballistic” and “cruise missiles” with ranges between 500 to 5,500 kilometers from their respective inventories by 01 June 1991. It was also agreed that they will not “produce or flight-test ground-launched cruise missiles and their launchers” within the above specified ranges.

Since 2013 there have been concerns among the US and its NATO allies that Russia was not adhering to the INF Treaty. Moscow was accused of possessing the SSC-8/9M729 missiles which NATO argues is violation of the INF Treaty; but Russia dismissed accusations. Repeated calls by the US and NATO did not cut ice with Russia and on 02 August 2018 Washington announced gthat it was withdrawing from the INF Treaty. NATO Allies accused the Russians of being solely responsible for the breakdown in the Treaty arrangements and announced its “decision to respond in a measured and responsible way, while remaining firmly committed to the preservation of effective international arms control, disarmament and non-proliferation”. It was a major setback for global arms control measures.

Earlier this year in July, the US announced plans to deploy missiles (SM-6, Tomahawk, and developmental hypersonic weapons) in Germany in 2026 as part of the Multi-Domain Task Force to demonstrate US-NATO “contributions to European integrated deterrence”. President Putin did not hesitate to threaten the US that his country could free itself from the self-imposed freeze on the “deployment of medium and shorter-range strike weapons, including increasing the capabilities of the coastal forces of our Navy.” President Putin has now blamed the US of making a blunder by “unilaterally destroying” the INF Treaty in 2019 on a “far-fetched pretext.”

Amid these claims and allegations made by each side, it is feared that a Euro missile crisis is unfolding. For some it is reminiscent of the missile crisis of 1976-1988 and mirrors the deployment of medium-range strategic SS-20 missile in 1976 to intimidate the Europeans and the firing of the ‘Oreshnik’ missile on Dnipro on 21 November is meant to terrify the Ukrainians as well as many European countries that lie in the range of the missile. According to President Putin the missile is not a “strategic weapon” but has immense “striking power” and its “mass use” along with “high-precision long-range systems” makes it “comparable to strategic weapons”.

President Putin is encouraged by the successes of the missile both in terms of its power and accuracy and announced the serial production. He confirmed that more tests including during combat based on the threats faced by his country. Putin also declared that several systems similar to the Oreshnik system are on the anvil and are undergoing trials.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has now sought greater support from the NATO against any future ballistic missile attacks as well as security umbrella for Ukrainian territory that is currently held given that nearly 18 per cent has already been lost to Russian controls.

Dr. Vijay Sakhuja is Professor and Head, Center of Excellence for Geopolitics and International Studies (CEGIS), REVA University, Bengaluru and is associated with Kalinga International Foundation, New Delhi.