Early this month, a video of an Israeli warship sailing through the Suez Canal appeared on the social media in Egypt prompting sharp reactions online from the general public accusing the Egyptian government of its support to Israel amid regional tensions. The Palestinian social media too joined the chorus and alleged that Egypt was partnering with Israelis and fueling ‘genocide’. In separate statements, the Egyptian military and the Ministry of Transport denied the insinuations about their country cooperating with Israel. On its part, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) averred the legal position on the passage of the Israeli warship and clarified that the Canal is a global facility and that under the Convention the Suez Canal it must remain “free and open at all times, both in peace and war, to every vessel of commerce or of war, without distinction of flag.”

In late October, Egypt was in the crosshair of international attention over the sighting of a German-flagged cargo vessel MV Kathrin in Alexandria Port, purportedly carrying consignment of explosives for Elbit Systems, a company belonging to an Israeli defence contractor. The Egyptian activists condemned the docking of the vessel and filed a complaint with the country’s Public Prosecutor citing the presence of the vessel as a “serious violation of international and domestic laws,” Apparently the vessel had earlier been denied entry by ports in the Mediterranean Sea on similar grounds.

The transit by the Israeli Saar Class warship from the Mediterranean though the Suez Canal into the Red Sea portends that Israel is planning to now use the maritime domain to deter Iran. It merits mention that this is not the first time that Israeli warships have been dispatched to the Indian Ocean. In 2009, three Israeli naval vessels (two missile-class Saar 5 warships i.e. Eilat and the Hanit and a Dolphin class submarine) sailed through the Suez Canal to “participate in maneuvers with U.S. forces and to prevent smuggled arms from reaching the Gaza Strip”.

The Israeli Dolphin class conventional submarine which is capable of launching land attack cruise missiles (LACM) conducted “exercises in the Indian Ocean” in 2000 including missile launch tests to assess “viability of deploying its naval vessels in the region to respond to any aggressive posturing by Iran” through it has been denied by the Israeli Defense Forces.

Once again, in 2020, an Israeli submarine sailed in full view of the onlookers through the Suez Canal ostensible to deter Iran “for any Iranian retaliation” consequent to the assassination of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, a senior Iranian nuclear scientist. At the time, USS Georgia, an Ohio-class guided-missile submarine capable of carrying 154 Tomahawk cruise missiles was also sighted in the Persian Gulf prompting an Israeli strategic expert to comment that the sighting of the two submarine was not “coincidental”; instead it is meant to send “Iran a message: not to respond to the killing of Fakhrizadeh.”

As in the past, the ongoing deployment of the Israeli warship in the Arabian Sea is to signal to Iran that any future missile or drone attack on Israel will attract response from the sea. The very fact that the Israeli warship sailed through the Suez Canal and its sighting was widely discussed on social media is a calculated move to deter Iran. It has been reported that on November 14 Iranian Navy ships were “tied up in the Bandar Abbas Naval Harbour” in “contrast with some periods recently when Iran felt itself under threat and dispersed its naval assets”. It is an indicator that Tehran may not have the appetite for opening a new front at sea against Israel.

Furthermore, Iran is also concerned about the extensive damage caused to its nuclear-military infrastructure consequent to Israeli air strikes in late October 2024. These may have forced the Iranian leadership to rethink about retaliatory strikes. Reports suggest that Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi has conveyed to IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi that his country is “willing to negotiate” with France, Germany and the UK (E 3) “on its peaceful nuclear program ... but not ready to negotiate under pressure and intimidation.”

Finally, Iran is also awaiting President Donald Trump’s policy towards Tehran before launching any attack on Israel. This is so because the new Trump Administration could “include several key national security and foreign policy officials who are hawkish on Iran, which could lead to increased U.S. pressure on the Islamic Republic”.

Dr. Vijay Sakhuja is Professor and Head, Center of Excellence for Geopolitics and International Studies (CEGIS), REVA University, Bengaluru and is associated with Kalinga International Foundation, New Delhi.