Poland is bearing a huge financial burden to support Ukraine in its war against Russia. President Andrzej Duda said his country had already spent US$ 25 billion on “providing military, humanitarian, and other forms of support” to Ukraine over the past two and a half years. This corresponds to nearly 3.3% of the national GDP of the country. Poland has also supplied 400 tanks, and Ukrainian demand for Mig 21 fighters is pending. According to Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, these aircraft can be released after F-35s that have been ordered from the US are received by the Polish Air Force. Ukraine is also seeking military aid from several countries including the US which has announced the largest aid package valued at US$ 61 billion including US$ 23 billion to replenish US weapons, stocks and facilities.

The Russia-Ukraine war is now into the third year and there are, at this moment, no signs that it is ending soon. Both sides have dug heels while losing and gaining territory, clearly suggesting a stalemate with “no winners". There is widespread destruction of infrastructure with daily reports of attack on energy complexes, connectivity networks and urban centers.

Global leaders and emissaries are frequently visiting the capitals of both countries to find a solution; but the prospects of a ceasefire or even signs of brief peace in the region eludes them. For instance Indian Prime Minister Modi has met and counseled the leaders of the warring countries as also conveyed New Delhi's "consistent position in favor of dialogue and diplomacy,"

According to reports, after two and half years of this ongoing war, as on 31 August 2024, Russian Army has lost 614,950 military personnel, 25,318 tanks and APCs, 26,802 motor vehicles/fuel tanks/ special equipment, 496 aircraft and helicopters, 14,471 UAVs , 1 submarine, 28 warships, and 2,557cruise missiles were launched.

Russia has also received military hardware and ammunitions from North Korea and Iran. According to US sources, in six months i.e. September 2023 and February 2024, North Korea dispatched “more than 10,000 containers of munitions or munitions-related materials to Russia.” Furthermore, according to Ukrainian Prosecutor General, Russia launched at least 24 North Korean KN-23/24 series missiles.  These military hardware and ammunition transfers were undertaken through ‘dark vessels’ that sailed between North Korean ports Najin and Dunai, and Vostochny Port in Russia. Similarly, according to South Korean Defense Minister, over 2.5 million rounds of North Korean artillery shells were dispatched to Russia since August 2023. After signing the mutual defense agreement in June 2024, it is plausible that more such military hardware and ammunition would have been transferred to Russia by North Korea. In return, North Korea is “suspected of seeking a range of Russian military technologies”.

As far as Iran is concerned, a $1.75 billion purchase of Shahed 136 kamikaze drones by Russia has been reported. Apparently Russia has indigenized these drones at Alabuga. Iran has also transferred 400 missiles of the Fateh-110 family and the road-mobile Zolfaghar missile with range of 300 and 700 kilometers.

Interestingly, the US transferred to Iran “over 5,000 AK-47s, machine guns, sniper rifles, RPG-7s and over 500,000 rounds of 7.62mm ammunition to the Ukrainian armed forces”. According to the US Central Command, these were “seized between May 2021 and February 2023 from four “stateless vessels” as they were being transferred from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to the Houthi rebels in Yemen”.

The war is also resulting in “lost generations” and the death count is in tens of thousands of both military and civilians. As of July 31, 2024, according to the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR), 35,160 civilian casualties have been recorded during the war. In Ukraine, the deaths of civilians, or non-armed individuals is 11,520; However, OHCHR believes that the real numbers could be higher. 

There is also the humanitarian crisis requiring food, safety and medical aid. According to the International Rescue Committee (IRC), some 14.6 million Ukrainians are estimated to be in need of humanitarian assistance, including the 3.7 million internally displaced. The world Bank has estimated that in 2024 Ukraine will require as much as US$ 15 billion for “immediate reconstruction and recovery” particularly for “restoration of housing, soft infrastructure and services, energy, and transport,"

Similarly, Russia has suffered from sanctions and sealing of bank accounts. Nearly US$ 320 billion belonging to Russian Central Bank have been blocked and assets of more than 1,500 people and entities valued at over $21.6 billion are under Western sanctions.

All in all, the Russia Ukraine war is a military-humanitarian catastrophe that will not only impact the economies of both countries, it is the human losses that will haunt the future generations.

Dr. Vijay Sakhuja is Professor and Head, Center of Excellence for Geopolitics and International Studies (CEGIS), REVA University, Bengaluru and is associated with Kalinga International Foundation, New Delhi.