Dark clouds of Cold War 2.0 are gathering amid fears that relations between the US and Russia are at all-time low; perhaps worse than even during the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis. President Putin has cautioned that the current situation is “reminiscent of the events of the Cold War” when the US had deployed medium-range Pershing ballistic missiles in West Germany in the 1980s. He was reacting to the US announcement during the NATO Summit that Washington would begin deploying long-range missiles (Standard Missile 6 (SM-6) with a range of more than 500 kilometres, Tomahawk cruise missiles around 1,300 kilometres and developmental hypersonic weapons capable of delivering warheads at more than 3,000 kilometres) in Germany from 2026 onwards and “enhance deterrence in Europe by providing NATO with capabilities it currently lacks”.

Putin explained that the “flight time to targets on our territory of such missiles, which in the future may be equipped with nuclear warheads, will be about 10 minutes,” and therefore warned that his country will take “mirror measures to deploy, taking into account the actions of the United States, its satellites in Europe and in other regions of the world”. Meanwhile, speaking to a state TV reporter, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov cautioned that “All the attributes of the Cold War with the direct confrontation [between US and Russia] are returning,”

At another level, US China relations are growing tenser over US deployment of Typhon missile system in the Philippines as part of joint military exercises held earlier this year. During Exercises Balikatan and Salaknib, an annual exercises between the Philippines and the US military, the Typhon missile system was “successfully” deployed in the Luzon island in northern Philippine. Reportedly, Philippine troops are now trained to both use and maintain the Typhon system which is capable of firing SM-6 with a range of 240 kilometers and the Tomahawk Land Attack Missile (TLAM) capable of ranges over 2,500 kilometers. These missiles can hit targets in the South China Sea as well as the Taiwan Strait.

Although there was no live firing of the missiles during the Balikatan and Salaknib exercises, the Chinese Defence Minister Dong Jun expressed strong opposition and in May 2024 conveyed to US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin that the missile system posed “a real threat to regional security”. The Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has now cautioned Philippine Foreign Secretary Enrique Manalo that any such move “could fuel regional tensions and spark an arms race”.

A Philippine military official had earlier stated that it was not known how long the missile systems would remain in the country; however Colonel Louie Dema-ala, the Philippine Army spokesman in a recent statement clarified that the Typhon missile system “would return to the United States in September “as per plan” once other defence equipment used during joint exercises with the US military had been shipped back”.

The Chinese remain apprehensive that Typhoon missile system can be redeployed in the Philippines; according to a former PLA instructor Song Zhongping “Those missile systems are mobile and can be deployed again whenever needed. Even if they withdraw them now, it shows the US can deploy those in the Philippines when necessary to put pressure on China.” The current move, according Song Zhongping, was only “a gesture” to de-escalate tensions to enable talks under the China-Philippines Bilateral Consultation Mechanism on the South China Sea (BCM) wherein both sides agreed to “continue to maintain dialogue and consultation … to control disputes and differences”. The Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs announced that although “significant differences remain”, “substantial progress on developing measures to manage the situation at sea” were discussed and agreed.

US has access to nine military bases in the Philippines and is continuously increasing its involvement in the Philippines security requirements under the Mutual Defense Treaty which covers the South China Sea, the 1998 Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) and 2014 Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) for coordination and interoperability.

There are clear indications that the US (along with the NATO) is determined to challenge Russia and counter Chinese hegemony in the western Pacific with support from Alliance partners (Australia, Japan, South Korea and New Zealand) i.e. IP4 and the Philippines.

The US’ provocation has not gone unnoticed in Moscow and Beijing. In July, a pair each of Russian (Tu-95MS strategic missile carriers) and Chinese (Xian H-6 strategic bombers) conducted joint patrol over the Bering Sea near Alaska. These aircraft, according to the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD), had “remained in international airspace” and were “not seen as a threat”. Meanwhile Russia conducted a large-scale military exercise in July 2024 across seas involving over 300 ships, submarines, and support vessels clearly demonstrating its naval power notwithstanding heavy losses for the Black Sea fleet in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.

Dr. Vijay Sakhuja is Professor and Head, Center of Excellence for Geopolitics and International Studies (CEGIS), REVA University, Bengaluru and is associated with Kalinga International Foundation, New Delhi.