Minilateral groupings in trilateral and quadrilateral formats are gaining popularity. Majority of these constitute likeminded states who have common agendas and are looking to maximize national interests by joining. The focus of such grouping generally includes defence and security issues, economics, climate change, technology, energy, human development, social wellbeing, supply chains, connectivity, etc.

Some of these groupings or arrangements have a strategic intent for collective defence and are tailored-designed to confront the dominant challenger[s]. Their mandate includes war joint fighting (doctrine and strategy), military technology development, space-cyber-intelligence sharing, military related infrastructure and supply chains, etc. Such alliances also involve collective security wherein an attack on one country is understood as attack on the grouping and responded accordingly. For instance, the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), a transatlantic security alliance, is perhaps the “most successful and enduring alliance in history”. Its members have increased from 12 to 32 countries through 10 rounds of enlargement since 1949.

In modern times, the AUKUS, a trilateral grouping involving Australia, United Kingdom and the US, is a unique grouping with a nuclear focus. The three countries plan to share nuclear technology as well as “foster deeper integration of security and defense-related science, technology, industrial bases and supply chains”.

The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QSD) member countries i.e. Australia, India, Japan and the US, began as a grouping solely to challenge China’s assertive posturing in the Indo-Pacific; but over the years the grouping has chosen to broaden its scope to cooperate in diverse areas including connectivity infrastructure and green energy. Majority of such groupings are led by the US and its alliance partners. Unlike other members, India has chosen “multi-alignment and strategic autonomy” as its foreign and security policy mantra.

Interestingly, non-state actors too form non-formal grouping and come together to fight a common cause. For instance, the militant and insurgent groups Hamas (Palestine), Houthis (Yemen), Hezbollah (Lebanon), and splinter groups in Iraq and Syria are the proxies of Iran and are fighting against Israel and the US-EU partners.

A new grouping comprising of China, Russia, North Korea and Iran, also labelled as “autocratic regimes” is taking roots. These countries have been, and are, under the US and western sanctions prompting them to come together and promote strategic agenda through cooperation in the military spheres, space, cyber and critical technology. There has been a flurry of politico-diplomatic activity among these countries which directly impacts on the two of the ongoing conflicts i.e. Ukraine Russia war and the Israel Palestine conflict.

In the context of the former, Russia has received generous and overt support from Iran and their cooperation now spans the military, economic, and political domains. It would have been unimaginable to comprehend Iran emerging as a major supplier of military hardware to Russia before the Ukraine war; in fact it was Russia which had supplied to Iran high end platforms and weapons such as Kilo class submarines, advanced long-range S-300 PMU-2 systems in 2016 and the acquisition of Su-35 Flanker-E fighters by Iran is at an advanced stage which could potentially be formidable response to any attacks against Iran. There is a role reversal now, and Iran has supplied Russia with drones (Shahed), ammunition (artillery shells) and even ballistic missiles could be part of the supplies.

Similarly, North Korea has supplied to Russia 7,000 containers of ammunitions (152mm shells) as well as 50 missiles. US Space Command’s Gen. Stephen N. Whiting recently warned that there is a “growing sense of cooperation in the space sphere between these four countries, at least bilaterally within these four countries,”

China has, for various reasons, avoided any direct military supplies to Russia in the ongoing war against Ukraine. However, a report by the Washington-based think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has noted that Beijing has provide/sold “dual-use or even purely civilian technologies." In particular, “CNC machines — which are used to provide precise parts for various weapons systems from ammunition to aircraft” — from Chinese companies also experienced a sharp increase in the months following the Xi-Putin March 2023 meeting,”

Elsewhere, the military led State Administration Council (SAC) junta has been under the US scanner over issues of democracy and human rights. Washington has now announced the first-ever U.S. Congressional Caucus on Burma. Meanwhile, Naypyidaw has military and economic support from Beijing. Russia has supplied Myanmar military hardware and scheduled over 50 military cooperation activities. It is fair to argue that the China-Russia-North Korea-Iran grouping may expand to include Myanmar.

Dr. Vijay Sakhuja is Professor and Head, Center of Excellence for Geopolitics and International Studies (CEGIS), REVA University, Bengaluru and is associated with Kalinga International Foundation, New Delhi.