Three recent developments with global ramifications have triggered an urgency in investments in land based trans-continental and regional-sub regional connectivity infrastructure in Eurasia. First the ongoing Russia Ukraine war has impacted the northern trade corridor which runs east-west i.e. Asia to Europe and transits through Russia-Belarus. It is witnessing reduced cargo movements due to sanctions imposed by the West on Moscow.

Second, at sea, the Houthi rebels in Yemen, who are apparently acting as proxy for Iran and support the Palestinian cause, have targeted international shipping with ballistic and cruise missiles and swarm drone attacks forcing shipping companies to use safer routes, though longer, through the Cape of Good Hope along South Africa.

Third, the Somali pirates are back in business due to limited naval presence given that multinational forces are currently engaged in safeguarding international shipping in the Red Sea against the Houthi attacks. In a recent case, the Bangladeshi owners are said to have paid a $5 million ransom to the Somali pirates for the release of the hijacked ship MV Abdullah. It merits mention that it took nearly a decade for international naval efforts to curb incidences of piracy in the Gulf of Aden which had come down to zero in 2022 and 2023.

In the context of the Eurasian landmass, a number of trans-regional-continental connectivity infrastructure projects have been announced. The important among these are (a) Eurasian Northern Corridor connecting China to Europe through Russia; (b) Middle Corridor linking China to Europe bypassing Russia (also referred to as Trans-Caspian International Trade Route, or TITR); (c) India Middle East Economic Corridor (IMEC) (India-UAE-Saudi Arabia-Jordan-Israel-European Union); and (d) Development Road project which connects Persian Gulf-Türkiye-Europe). The 7,200 kilometers long International North South Transport Corridor (INSTC) connecting India to Russia through Iran is expected to be operational in 2025.

There are also sub-regional connectivity projects such as the 2,177 kilometers long railway connectivity system led by the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member states. It is being built at a cost US$ 250 billion and would support movement of people and goods. In particular, the daily carrying capacity of the trains is expected to be 12,000 commuters and 250,000 containers.

Another regional connectivity project involves the Caspian Sea littorals but excludes Russia and Iran. Referred to as the Middle Corridor (it approximately follows the ancient Silk Route), or the Trans-Caspian International Trade Route (TITR). It is also considered as part of the Chinese Belt Road Initiative (BRI). The TITR is a multimodal network and runs across Central Asia and the South Caucasus through the Caspian Sea (ports in Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan) into Azerbaijan through the Georgian ports/across Turkey and links the Chinese and European markets. In current times of high risks on the seas, the TITR is considered to the “safest and least complicated” option for conducting trade between Europe and Asia.

The TITR is being supported by the European and international financial institutions who have pledged to invest roughly US$10.8 billion for developing infrastructure along the route. The EU’s interest in the route are quite obvious and is triggered by the Russia-Ukraine war and sanctions which has reduced dependence on the Northern Corridor route.

The TITR also offers shorter transit time i.e. it takes 14 to 18 days though this route as compared to 19 days through Russia and 22 to 37 days through the sea routes, thus making it more attractive option. However, it should be borne in mind that in terms of numbers-volume of cargo, the sea route is the most economical albeit several risks which commercial shipping must take into consideration.

The volume of cargo on the TITR was nearly 2 million tons (in the first nine months of 2023), an increase of 88% as against 1.1 million tons for the same period in 2022. The annual throughput capacity of the TITR is estimated to be 5.8 million tons and trade volume could be increase to 11 million tons by 2030 and travel time could shrink to nearly a half.

According to World Bank Regional Director for the South Caucasus “Beyond its utility as an Asia-Europe land bridge for containerized freight and a route to access international markets for all types of freight, the Middle Corridor’s significance lies in the potential benefits it can bring as an intra-regional trade corridor, that is trade among the countries of the region,”

Although the TITR is quite attractive and offers several advantages, however there are geopolitical and geostrategic challenges for the TITR. The three decades long ethnic and territorial dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan can potentially disrupts trade along the TITR. The leadership of both countries have showcased commitment to peace; yet there are several geopolitical considerations involving Russia and Iran.

In that context, any attempts by NATO to position troops in Armenia would only complicate the Russia and Iran security and regional instability. It is pertinent to mention that Armenia has distanced itself from the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) and threatened to leave it in case the military alliance fails to “address Armenia's collective security concerns”. In February 2024, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan was unambiguous in stating that the CSTO did not fulfill the objectives and had failed to prevent wars.

Dr. Vijay Sakhuja is associated with Kalinga International Foundation, New Delhi, and is Professor and Head, Center of Excellence for Geopolitics and International Studies (CEGIS), REVA University, Bengaluru.