The ongoing Israel-Palestine conflict has spilled beyond borders and impacted two ambitious trans-regional multimodal connectivity projects involving India.

First the much touted India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEEC) Project launched during the G20 Summit in New Delhi in September 2023 is in the crosshair. One of the nodes in the IMEEC i.e. Haifa port in Israel, the largest of the three major international seaports of the country is vulnerable to missile and drone attacks. The Houthis have threatened to launch attacks at the Haifa port on the Mediterranean coast (second largest port of Israel specializing in container traffic and cruise ships) which along with Ashdod port account for at least 30 percent of Israel’s maritime trade.

Haifa is also a naval base and submarines of the Israeli navy are home ported. It is rumored that “Israeli submarines may be equipped with a miniaturized nuclear warheads. The Israeli government neither confirms nor denies that it possesses nuclear weapons and this ambiguous posture is widely accepted. It is also suspected that Israel may have developed a nuclear warhead for its submarine launched cruise missile.”

In July 2022, the Haifa port was acquired for US$ 1.2 billion by the Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited (APSEZL), an Indian owned ports and logistics company after competing with a Chinese company. The shares of the company fell soon after the Hamas conducted the brutal attack on Israel on 7 October 2023 as the investors “grew wary over possible escalation of a conflict in Israel”.

It was also speculated that Iran could join Hamas and may attack the Haifa port. Ali Fadavi, the deputy commander of the IRGC announced that “a direct missile attack on Haifa to be the most practical course of action. We will carry out this task without hesitation if it is necessary and required,”; but also said that he is “not the one who determines the assignment” ostensibly mindful of the fact that any such attack would invite prompt response from Israel as well as from the US, UK and some European countries.

Interestingly, the Iraqi Islamic Resistance, another group which has Iranian backing, has claimed that it had launched long-range cruise missile at targets in the Haifa city. This was announced after reports emerged that explosions were heard and plumes of smoke were seen on the coast of Haifa port. The group has been targeting the US assets in Syria and Iraq and such attacks have exceeded 100 times since it proclaimed support to the Palestinians.

There have also been calls to shut the Bayport in Haifa due to suspicions that Shanghai International Port Group (SIPG), the Chinese company that manages the port, is “cooperating with Iran and the Houthis and preventing the passage of ships in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait”.

It merits mention that Haifa also finds reference in the I2U2 (India, Israel, UAE, USA) bloc which symbolizes the Arab-Israeli normalization. Both IMEEC and I2U2 are seen as a counter to the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) under the Chinese led Belt Road Initiative (BRI).

Second, the quick ‘settlement of differences and de-escalation of tensions’ between Iran and Pakistan over air-missile attacks against each other. Earlier this month, Iran carried out air strikes against the Jaish al-Adl militant group in Balochistan which attracted retaliatory 'precision military strikes' by Pakistan against “terrorist hideouts" in Iran's Siestan-Balochistan province. The operation was code-named 'Marg Bar Sarmachar' and was targeted against the “Sarmachars” who are a Pakistani origin group and operate from safe havens and sanctuaries in Iran.

A statement for Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs notes that the strikes demonstrated the country’s “unflinching resolve to protect and defend its national security against all threats”; but in the same breath noted “Iran is a brotherly country and the people of Pakistan have great respect and affection for the Iranian people. We have always emphasized dialogue and cooperation in confronting common challenges including the menace of terrorism and will continue to endeavour to find joint solutions”. This prompted Iran's foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdolahian to visit Islamabad for 'in-depth' talks with his Pakistani counterpart Jalil Abbas Jilani.

Any Iran-Israeli contestation is primed for conflict. It will potentially result in US and its alliance partners to forward deploy military-naval forces in the North Arabian Sea. The China-Iran-Russia axis can be expected to be engendered by Iran at whose behest these countries hold joint maritime drills codenamed Marine Security Belt (MSB).

So far New Delhi has managed to distance from the US led Operation Prosperity Guardian targeted against the Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea as also making any critical remarks against Iran. It has instead signed a new ten years agreement to operate the Shahid Beheshti terminal in the Chabahar port. This showcases New Delhi’s continued commitment to the 7,200 kilometers long International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) project for moving freight from India though Iran to Russia and thence to Europe and vice-versa.

Dr. Vijay Sakhuja is associated with Kalinga International Foundation, New Delhi and is Emeritus Professor of Research, SoA Center for Integrated Maritime Studies and Research (SOACIMSR), Siksha 'O' Anusandhan University, Bhuvneshwar, Odisha, India.