States often recall the past to contextualize the present. Expressions such as ‘civilizational history’, ‘religious connections’, ‘cultural bonds’, ‘people to people contacts’, ‘being under colonial powers’, and more modern concepts such as ‘democracy’, ‘commonwealth’, ‘G20’, etc. are frequently mentioned in speeches and statements. Also, hugs, handshakes and facial expressions convey the nature of relations between the concerned parties. Many of these result in long lasting friendship and are cherished by successive leaders.

However, changes in domestic political dispensations, particularly when the opposition political parties are supported by great powers, often lead to foreign policy anxieties. Yet, States do not give up and continue to pursue national interests particularly when these have strong politico-strategic subtexts.

For India, elections in its neighbouring countries often cause diplomatic nervousness. In his recent interview to the Indian media house, Maldives President Mohamed Muizzu acknowledged the geographic reality that India is both “our closest neighbour”, he recalled the “traditional and cultural roots” and assured that it is “one of our closest friends” and that “these realities – these facts, won’t change”, Yet, conveyed Maldivian people’s decision to request India to withdraw all its military personnel from the island State as also it would not renew the bilateral agreement for hydrographic surveys by the Indian Navy has caused anxiety in New Delhi. He has clearly spelt out his choice of not being “anti any country” or “pro-any country”, ostensible referring to India and China respectively, and work towards “global public interests in preserving peace and security at global and regional levels, and fosters development and prosperity in an inclusive and sustainable fashion”

President Mohamed Muizzu, after being elected, chose Turkey as his first overseas tour; this is a departure from the past when the Maldivian leaders made it a point to visit New Delhi before embarking on their maiden foreign visits. He however met Prime Minister Modi in the United Arab Emirates on the sidelines of COP28. Muizzu is now visiting China and the Indian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson did not comment on his visit expect that “It is for them to decide where they go and how they go about their international relations," According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) data, Maldives’ largest external creditor is China accounting for about US$1.3 billion which corresponds to about 20% of its total public debt. It is a plausible reason for Muizzu to visit China before coming to Delhi.

But there is good news coming from Sri Lanka. The country has decided moratorium on marine research activities by foreign vessels in its waters and it will be applicable for one year beginning in January 2024. It means that Xiang Yang Hong 3, a Chinese marine research vessel which was programmed to conduct “deep water exploration” in the south Indian Ocean from January 5, 2024 to late May 2024 will not do so. This decision will enable Sri Lanka to build indigenous capability and capacity so that “we can participate in such research activities as equal partners,”

The Sri Lankan decision also comes in the wake of conversations between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Ranil Wickremesinghe on Indian security concerns involving presence of Chinese scientific research vessels in India’s neighbourhood. New Delhi suspects that these vessels engage in naval intelligence collection, gathering underwater data that is critical for submarine operations and geological explorations.

Meanwhile, a commentary in The Global Tines, a mouthpiece of the Chinese government, has raised two questions to the Sri Lankan government; “Why did Sri Lanka have to inform India about a case between Sri Lanka and China, two independent sovereign countries? How does the presence of a Chinese scientific research vessel, rather than a warship, which was about to head toward Sri Lanka, not India, trigger India's strategic and security concerns? The commentary also accuses India of “pressurizing South Asian countries to fulfill its “hegemonic mentality in South Asia” and “having an exclusive sphere of influence in and around the Indian subcontinent”

In Bangladesh the ruling Awami League led by Prime Minsiter Shekh Hasina is back in power and the outcome of the recent elections has been welcomed by India. On the day of election, Sheik Hasina recalled the 1971 Liberation War and stated that “we are very lucky. India is our trusted friend” who gave shelter to the people of Bangladesh. Although Bangladesh has courted China and received loans/grants for a number of key infrastructural projects including ports in Mongla, Payra and Chittagong, Dhaka has been careful of not being overly dependent on Chinese financial support. In a way, this approach partly addresses India’s security concerns.

In Myanmar, India’s Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project (KMMTTP), connecting south-western Myanmar and India’s northeast is competing with the 1,700-kilometer China-Myanmar Economic Corridor connecting Kunming in Yunnan province to the Bay of Bengal. India has funded Sitwe Deep Sea Port as part of the KMMTTP. The China supported Kyaukphyu project is only105 km north of Sitwe. While Myanmar has maintained equidistance policy vis a vis India and China, it has offered major concessions to China to “prevail upon the ethnic groups to bring down the level of violence” particularly in northern Shan State which borders China so that rebels do not get support from across the border.

By all accounts, India has managed to maintain good relations with its immediate neighbours (excluding Pakistan) and its ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy appears flexible and malleable which has helped New Delhi to accept the existing domestic political dispensation and incoming political parties.

Dr. Vijay Sakhuja is associated with Kalinga International Foundation, New Delhi and is Emeritus Professor of Research, SoA Center for Integrated Maritime Studies and Research (SOACIMSR), Siksha 'O' Anusandhan University, Bhuvneshwar, Odisha, India.