Mohamed Muizz has won the Maldivian national elections with a “strong mandate” defeating Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, the erstwhile President. Soon after taking oath, President Muizz announced that his government would be “using the instrument of diplomacy” to “ensure that this country has no foreign military presence on its soil”. The statement was targeted against India and this became evident when India’s Union Minister Kiren Rejiju, who had represented New Delhi at Muizzu's investiture ceremony, made a courtesy call on the President at his office in Male. Rejiju was requested to withdraw nearly 70 Indian military personnel from the island country in less than 24 hours.

There are at least three reasons which prompted President Mohamed Muizz to raise the issue of foreign military presence in his country. First, traditionally, India is an important factor in Maldives domestic politics and consequently it figures prominently in the agenda for national elections. No wonder then, New Delhi was part of the election campaign wherein the new political dispensation, a coalition, had promised to the people of Maldives to ensure total absence of foreign military presence [India] in the country.

This is notwithstanding the fact that Indian Coast Guard has been providing the Maldives National Defence Force (MNDF) with its maritime security needs through a verity of tasks. During the last five years there were over 450 “multifaceted missions” undertaken by the Indian military – “124 missions in 2020; 152 missions in 2021 and 122 missions in 2022 to support Maldives”.

Second, Maldives current focus is on rebuilding its economy and it needs foreign investments. Maldives’ Current Account Deficit, according to the World Bank, “doubled to 16.7 percent of GDP in 2022 due to expensive oil imports and capital imports for large projects” impacting on exchange reserves. The country needs investments from both India and China to foster growth which calls for a balanced approach when dealing with New Delhi and Beijing.

Also, the tourism sector which is the primary source of revenue for the country, had experienced major setback during the COVID pandemic due to plummeting footfalls; but it is on recovery. In particular, the “return of Chinese tourists and increased arrivals from various markets” including India are “expected to sustain this growth, aided by airport expansion, a diverse tourism sector, and investments in new resorts”. The latter infrastructure needs can be best provided for by the Chinese under its Belt Road Initiative.

Third, the India-China competition looms large in the Maldivian national debate. Abdulla Yameen, the former President (2013 to 2018) had nurtured strong friendly relations with China much to India’s discomfort. President Muizzu is close to Yameen and defeated Ibrahim Mohamed Solih who had strong India-friendly leanings. During Solih’s Presidency several bilateral and regional initiatives with India were announced. At the bilateral level, India instituted capacity building programmes/projects across domains which had enabled positioning of unspecified military personnel to meet the country’s maritime domain awareness (MDA) needs. It entailed setting up coastal surveillance radars, positioning helicopters and patrol aircraft, information-intelligence sharing, training and operational exercises, among other issues. Earlier this year, both countries signed an agreement to fund a vessel repair and maintenance facility at SIFAVARU, and India’s External Affairs Minister tweeted “Partners in development, partners in security.”

At the sub-regional level, the National Security Advisor (NSA) level Colombo Security Conclave (CSC) merits mention. The CSC is an India led initiative and involves highest level talks led by the NSAs and are supplemented by functional engagements through sub-groups aimed at capacity building. These may have triggered fears among the Maldivian opposition parties and people about New Delhi’s meddling in the country’s security affairs.

President Mohamed Muizz request to Minister Rejiju may have been quite disquieting, but it should not have surprised New Delhi. In fact national elections or for that matter domestic politics in any neighbouring country of India including Pakistan are a near continuous politico-diplomatic dilemma and strategic challenge; but New Delhi has weathered the storms.

As far as Maldives is concerned, there has been no reaction over Muizzu’s request to withdraw Indian military personnel; however, Rejiju’s tweet is a reflection of the confidence in New Delhi about “a constructive relationship with the Maldives” under the new political dispensation and “India's commitment to further strengthen the substantive bilateral cooperation and robust people-to-people ties,” It is fair to argue that India would continue to support Maldivian maritime security needs through various capacity building initiatives both the earlier ones as also new requirements

On its part, Maldives would not like to choose between India or China, and Muizzu’s choices of not openly leaning toward China is a pragmatic political approach. However, Maldivian leadership will have to keep in mind that the existing national capabilities to ensure safety and security of the people are insignificant should there be a national crisis of any type such as climate change, water shortage, internal disturbance, etc. In such a situations, India has been and will continue as the ‘first responder’.

Be that as it may, India, which advocates democracy and promotes it through its own example, must uphold the choice of the people of Maldives. In that context, Maldivian President's Office press statement notes “…at the Presidential Election held in September, the Maldivian people had given him a strong mandate to make the request to India and expressed the hope that India will honour the democratic will of the people of the Maldives,” and at least two words i.e. ‘request’ and ‘honour’ merit attention of New Delhi and could be guiding its future relations with the island nation.

Dr Vijay Sakhuja is Associated with Kalinga International Foundation, New Delhi.