The push back against the QUAD (Australia, India, Japan and the U.S.) and the AUKUS (Australia, the U.K. and the U.S.) is gaining momentum and new groupings are being conceptualized. One such consortia, though not formally announced, is the China, Russia and North Korea or the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), an authoritarian regime which has been led by the Kim family for over seven decades.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is scheduled to travel to Vladivostok, Russia (by armoured rail coach) in the coming days and meet with President Vladimir V. Putin. The purpose of the visit is strategic in nature and, according to the US White House, in all probability, discuss military cooperation, in particular the “possibility of supplying Russia with more weaponry for its war in Ukraine”. Apparently, North Korea has large stocks of munitions (artillery shells and antitank missiles) in its Soviet-era inventory, which Russia wants to use in its war against Ukraine that is now in its second year. Meanwhile, the US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan cautioned Pyongyang that it would “pay a price” for providing weapons.

In return, North Korea is hoping that Russia supply “advanced technology for satellites and nuclear-powered submarines” which Pyongyang needs desperately. In the context of the latter, early this month, North Korea launched a new tactical nuclear attack submarine “Hero Kim Kun Ok” (Pennant No. 841) to mark the 75th anniversary of the country’s founding. At the launching ceremony Kim Jong said “Achieving a rapid development of our naval forces ... is a priority that cannot be delayed given ... the enemies' recent aggressive moves and military acts,” According to naval analysts, the submarine appears to be a modified Soviet-era Romeo-class vessel. It has ten launch tube hatches and is most likely to be armed with ballistic and cruise missiles.

According to reports, Russia is also considering holding joint military exercises with North Korea. Although Russia's ambassador to North Korea, Alexander Matsegora, appeared unaware of any “plans for North Korea to participate in trilateral military drills with China and Russia, but that in his opinion it would be "appropriate" in light of U.S.-led exercises in the region”. In July 2023, during his visit to North Korea, Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu had “officially proposed the idea of tripartite joint exercises between North Korea, China, and Russia”.

The latter, it appears is in response to the recent trilateral partnership between Japan, Republic of Korea (ROK), and the United States (JAROKUS) convened at Camp David wherein they agreed to “trilateral meetings between our leaders, foreign ministers, defense ministers, and national security advisors at least annually, complementing existing trilateral meetings between our respective foreign and defense ministries”.

In July 2023, Japan, South Korea and the United States held joint naval missile defence exercises to counter North Korea’s “nuclear and missile threats” particularly after Pyongyang fired the Hwasong-18 missile which is the “core of its nuclear strike force”. Although North Korea regularly test fires a variety of missiles in the Sea of Japan, but the recent firing of Hwasong-18 was in response to “US spy planes of flying over its exclusive economic zone waters, condemning a recent visit to South Korea by a US nuclear-powered cruise missile submarine”.

China is planning to send a low-profile delegation to North Korea led by Liu Guozhong, vice premier of the State Council of China (former governor of Jilin province with deep understanding of North Korean issues and has expertise in the economy) just before Kim Jong Un visit to Russia. This is the second visit by a high level Chinese functionary in less than two months; but it is only to participate in the 75th anniversary celebration of North Korea's Foundation Day. By “Sending a lower-level delegation means that it is refraining from taking provocative actions that the U.S. would strongly dislike” says Cho Han-bum, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute of National Unification. On the other hand, according to Cho, “Russia may send a high-level delegation to North Korea for the founding day ceremony in order to boost the visibility of the rapidly improving bilateral ties”.

Be that as it may, the above developments are a perfect recipe for stronger China-US-DPRK consortium. It is fair to assume that China may initially go slow on the above trilateral, but would surely welcome the deepening of North Korea-Russia relations. Beijing can potentially use it as a trump card to put pressure against any aggressive posturing by Washington and its allies under the Camp David trilateral agreement.

Dr Vijay Sakhuja is Associated with Kalinga International Foundation, New Delhi.