Philippines is displaying a newfound confidence, albeit in its own way, against the mighty Chinese power that looms large in the South China Sea. There are at least four issues which showcase this newly gained self-confidence.

First, in early August 2023, Chinese Coast Guard ships attempted to block two Philippine navy-chartered resupply vessels that had carried food and other requirements for the Philippines military personnel deployed on the vessel BRP Sierra Madre, an old warship. There were tensions between Philippines and China over the vessel, which was deliberately stranded in 1999 on the Second Thomas Shoal, (known as Ayungin Shoal in the Philippines) and to bolster Manila’s sovereignty to counter Chinese claims over the reef.

The Chinese vessels used water cannons against the Philippine resupply vessels and obstructed safe passage which prompted the US to warn that any armed attack on “Philippine public vessels, aircraft and military — including its coast guard — would trigger the United States’ mutual defense treaty with the Philippines”. Japan, the European Union, Britain and Canada did not hesitate to criticize Chinese actions. Beijing was quick to respond and accused the US for rallying behind “certain allies to persistently sensationalize the South China Sea issue, extensively hype up the recent maritime incident and attack China’s legitimate and lawful actions at sea.” This show of determination by the Philippines government which was backed by a strong US statement has showcased that it will not be ‘business as usual’ given that in February 2023 Chinese Coast Guard vessel used military grade laser to block the a Philippine coast guard vessel approaching the shoal.

Second is about the 2016 Arbitral award which invalidated the Chinese nine-dashed line. Manila has accused China of not adhering to the Award, and on its part has dismissed the recently (on 28 August 2023) published Chinese "standard map". The Philippines Foreign Ministry stated, "This latest attempt to legitimize China’s purported sovereignty and jurisdiction over Philippine features and maritime zones has no basis under international law, particularly the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS)."

Such and similar statements from the Philippines had rarely been ever made in the past due to several factors including domestic political compulsions, dependence on Chinese trade, and above all weak military capability which the Chinese were quick to capitalize upon. In fact there was ambivalence in Manila to raise the 2016 Award issue with the Chinese including a “rumor that Duterte, instead of upholding the Philippine victory in the ruling of the International Arbitral Tribunal, promised Chinese President Xi Jin Ping to remove the Philippine navy ship BRP Sierra Madre from the Ayungin Shoal, a rumor which, because it has remained un-denied, carries a heavy degree of believability”.

Third, in 2022, Philippines government announced the sale of the strategically important shipyard “Hanjin Philippines”, a unit of South Korea’s Hanjin Heavy Industries & Construction Co Ltd, to the U.S. private equity firm Cerberus (CBS.UL). The shipyard had defaulted on US$ 1.3 billion loans and the Philippines government did not want any Chinese company to befit from the sale over “national security concern” amid fears that “ it could be taken over by state-run firms from China, with which the Philippines has a long history of mistrust”.

Fourth, the Philippines Navy and the Coast Guard too exudes confidence and are highly motivated to “fulfill our constitutional obligation to defend the country’s waters”. The military modernization program has boosted their capabilities and they now operate several modern ships, majority of which have been acquired from South Korea. The Philippines Navy is also contemplating to acquire submarines and has received offers from Naval Group of France, South Korean DSME, Russia, and Turkey to build submarines for the navy.

At another level, the Philippines Navy now conducts exercises with the Quad and non-Quad navies. For instance during the recent iteration of exercises Japan, the United States, Australia and the Philippines conducted joint naval drills in the South China Sea to “strengthen collaboration toward the realization of a free and open Indo-Pacific,”. A senior Japanese naval officer connected with the exercises stated that his navy will “improve bilateral defense cooperation with the Philippine Navy for regional peace and stability and the maintenance of maritime order” Earlier in June 2023, Australia, Japan, the Philippines and the US the United States, held their first-ever defense ministerial meeting in Singapore, agreeing to “strengthen security cooperation to promote a free and open Indo-Pacific”.

It is fair to argue that Manila now exudes a high degree of confidence given that it has political-diplomatic-military support from several western countries - Australia, Canada, the US, and few European member states. In Asia, Japan, India and South Korea have boosted Philippines military capability though supply of military hardware and are willingly including its military in their exercises.

At the level of the ASEAN, Manila may raise the issue of Chinese sabre rattling and grey zone operations by its Coast Guard and maritime militia against Philippines military, law enforcement agencies and fishermen at the ASEAN Summit scheduled later this month.

Dr Vijay Sakhuja is Associated with Kalinga International Foundation, New Delhi.