Offensive and counter offensive are the feature of the ongoing Russia Ukraine war and both sides continue to announce on regular basis, about territory lost or gained by their respective militaries. There is also the nuclear back drop; in September 2022 President Vladimir Putin threatened to use tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine stating that “If the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will certainly use all the means at our disposal to protect Russia and our people,” In June 2023, amid “fears of renewed nuclear escalation”, President Joe Biden warned that the threat is “real” and Russia could use tactical nuclear weapons.

Russia’s latest action concerns the year-long Black Sea Grain Initiative (BGI) which Moscow has decided to junk. It was brokered in July 2022 by the United Nations (UN) and Turkey between the warring countries under which it was agreed to allow safe passage for ships carrying Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea for one year in the hope that some solution would have been reached to stop the war.

However, soon after the expiry of the BGI, Russia bombed the Odessa port destroying grain loading infrastructure and about 60,000 tonnes of stocks stored at the port. The Russian Ministry of Defense also declared (20 July 2023) that “all ships proceeding in the waters of the Black Sea to Ukrainian ports will be considered as potential carriers of military cargoes,” and “countries of the flag of such ships will be considered to be involved in the Ukrainian conflict on the side of Kyiv regime.” Meanwhile the UN has repeatedly urged Moscow to reconsider its decision to walk out of the BGI and allow Ukrainian wheat to flow to the global market.

The repercussion of Russia shelving the BGI are not surprising and Wheat, corn and soybean prices increased across markets. Over the past 12 months, 32.8 million tonnes of food (corn, wheat, sunflower meal, sunflower oil) and other commodities were shipped out of Ukraine under the BGI across the globe i.e. 50 % bound for Asia Pacific region, 40 % Western Europe and 12.2 % to Africa.

African States in particular are the worst hit and the leaders sought assurances from Russia during two-day Russia-Africa summit on 27-28 July 2023. The Summit was attended by 17 heads of state and 32 other African countries are represented by senior officials or ambassadors and their focus was on ensuring food security premised on sustained supply of grain and fertilizers from Russia. In his remarks at the opening session, Putin promised that his country would continue to supply humanitarian aid (grain) to “needy states and regions” and would earnestly make “efforts to avert a global food crisis,” Putin’s above assertion at the Summit aims to “bolster ties with a continent given that the 54 African nations constitute the largest voting bloc at the United Nations and are “increasingly assertive on the global stage”.

However there is a caveat; Putin did not hesitate to mention to the assembled African leaders and their representatives that Russia can “replace Ukrainian grain, both on a commercial basis and as grant aid to the neediest African countries” a veiled warning on their continued reliance on Ukrainian grain.  

While supply of gain is currently high on the agenda of African nations, Moscow has been making concerted efforts to build robust strategic relations with select African countries. In 2020 it was reported Russia had signed military cooperation agreements with 21 countries in Africa particularly the “continent's dictatorial regimes” and as many as 180 Russian army instructors were deployed in these countries for training local armies. Currently Russia’s market share of weapon supplies to African nations is estimated to be 37.6 %, followed by the US with 16 %, France with 14 %, and China with 9 %. Furthermore, Russia could build military bases in Central African Republic, Egypt, Eritrea, Madagascar, Mozambique, and Sudan.

There is also the ugly Russian engagement in Africa i.e. in Mali. Although the training of 20 Malian soldiers in Russia every year is nothing unusual, it is the presence of the Wagner Group, a private military company (first emerged in 2014) which till very recently was closely linked to the Kremlin has attracted international attention. In Mali, the Group has been accused of extrajudicial executions and forced disappearances of dozens of civilians in central Mali since December 2022”. Apparently the group is also infamous for supporting General Khalifa Haftar in Libya, and is reported to have been involved in the battlefields of Syria. Its involvement in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and its disbandment including Wagner Group’s chief, Yevgeny Prigozhin leaving the country after a deal that was brokered with assistance from Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko, is well known.

Be that as it may, it is worth mentioning that in June 2023 an African delegation led by South African President Cyril Ramaphosa made an attempt at peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, but were unable to persuade President Putin and Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky to end the war.

Dr Vijay Sakhuja is Associated with Kalinga International Foundation, New Delhi.