In May 2023, Cambodia completed three decades since the United Nations Transitional Authority in Cambodia (UNTAC) completed the supervision of the 1993 electoral process that led to the final culmination of the political settlement in Cambodia, following what has been known as the Cambodian conflict or the Third Indochina War. The war that occurred between 1978 and 1991, marked the end of the cold war in the region of Indochina, which began from 1945 and came to a conclusion in 1991, when the cold war finally ended. For the entire cold war period the region of Indochina was defined by ideological perspectives and remained hostage to the vagaries of global bipolar rivalries. As the Cold War ebbed in 1991, the view that the Cambodian transition to democracy under the UNTAC would allow for a political shift in the country has remained negligible with the mantle of leadership passing into the hands of the Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) led by Hun Sen.

Even as the country completed its general elections last week, the 23rd July electoral process has pushed this view even further with the legacy of rule passing from the hands of Hun Sen to his elder son Hun Manet, leaving little doubt of the political trajectory that the country will choose to follow. On July 23rd the country went to the polls in which the ruling CPP won a landslide victory as it has done over the last six general elections, barring the 2013 elections.

In the aftermath of the UNTAC, the rule of the CPP was initially uncertain as in the 1993 elections the CPP and the FUNCINPEC, the royalist party led by Prince Norodom Ranariddh, were literally neck to neck in the electoral results. While FUNCINPEC received 58 seats, the CPP had 51 seats. This situation led to the power sharing arrangement which was worked out as a possible solution especially as the CPP and Hun Sen were unwilling to relinquish power to the FUNCINPEC. The power sharing arrangement mandated that both of the leaders, Hun Sen and Ranariddh would be Prime Ministers with each holding office for six months, pushing the country back into political crisis even as the UNTAC operations ended and the international community was completing the pull-out from within Cambodia. By the 1998 elections, the CPP had already returned to gain its complete hold over the political space and since that time Cambodia has been ruled more as a one party state.

Following the recent electoral victory of the CPP, incumbent Prime Minister Hun Sen publicly announced his decision to step down in favour of his son, Hun Manet. The electoral results actually gave the Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) a resounding victory where the party has secured 120 of the 125 seats. However, what does not come as a total surprise is that this victory was predicted even ahead of the elections, especially given the fact that the opposition was non-existent. The foremost threat from the Cambodian National Rescue Party (CNRP) was completely undermined over the last decade since the 2013 elections. In the run up to the 2013 elections, the CNRP has made critical inroads into the political process almost undermining the CPP for the very first time since Hun Sen was in power from 1985 onwards. During his 38 year long hold over the political fortunes of the country, the strongman has often come under international pressure and scrutiny, particularly in light of his treatment of opposition voices within Cambodia itself.

Two of the foremost opposition figures in the political fray were Sam Rainsy and Kem Sokha, both associated with the Cambodian National Rescue Party (CNRP). The capacity of the opposition’s political heft was at its height in the 2013 elections when the percentage of votes between the CPP and the CNRP was really close, with the CPP winning 48.8 % of the votes while the CNRP won 44.4% of the votes. Following this, up until the 2018 elections the domestic political situation within the country was constantly seeing a tussle between the ruling party and a strong opposition. Hun Sen’s focus was the decimation of the opposition voices and in this effort the two most targeted individuals were Sam Rainsy and Kem Sokha. Prior to the 2018 elections, in September 2017 the focus shifted to charging the political opposition on issues of treason, this became a challenge to foster any kind of national reconciliation between the ruling government and the political opposition. Core to this was a speech that was given by Kem Sokha to an Australian media broadcast, which was used as evidence against him, with accusations of him starting a conspiracy with the United States to topple the Hun Sen led government. Kem Sokha was arrested and imprisoned for a year from 2017 to 2018 and later released on bail, but placed under house arrest.

At that point in time Prime Minister Hun Sen made a reference to the kind of cold war politics that played out in the Indochinese theatre, wherein the coup d’etat headed by General Lon Nol in 1970 had been tacitly supported by the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), overthrowing the leadership of Norodom Sihanouk. The reference to Cambodia’s conflicted past has been constantly raised by Prime Minister Hun Sen to rally support for his continued rule. Even during the sensitive trials of the Khmer Rouge Tribunal (KRT) the reference to the beginnings of a civil war has often been stated. By the time the trials ended, the actual question of accountability became almost negligible.  

In the run up to last week’s ballot, Sam Rainsy was not allowed to enter Cambodia and lives in exile in France. His associate Kem Sokha was sentenced to 27 years under house arrest in March 2023, completely pushing all opposition voices out of the political process. The United Nations High Commissioner on Human Rights, categorically stated in a press release that the space for democratic participation is shrinking and that such a verdict will deter any form of political participation. While there remains some speculation that Hun Manet will be different than his father, Hun Sen, this remains to be seen. His education and training in the US is being projected as a new face in Cambodia’s leadership, but the fact that his father will be standing right behind him leaves little room for optimism.

Professor Shankari Sundararaman is Professor of Southeast Asian Studies, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi.