In May, the Taliban agreed with China and Pakistan to extend the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to Afghanistan. This decision was taken during a meeting between Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang, his Pakistani counterpart Bilawal Bhutto, and Afghanistan’s Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi in Islamabad. Extension of the BRI would bring in much needed investments and infrastructure development in Afghanistan.

For China’s part there are four aspects to engaging with Afghanistan. First, by investing in Afghanistan, China would get access to the former’s rich natural resources. Afghanistan has rich deposits of copper, gold, oil, natural gas, coal, uranium and iron ore. Besides, Afghanistan is also endowed with Rare Earth Elements (REE), lithium, chromium and lead. According to American Geological Survey, China currently dominates the global market for the REE. Access to Afghanistan’s REE reserves would further boost China’s position as a global leader in the REE.

Second, China has significant BRI related economic investments in Afghanistan’s neighbours i.e. $60 billion in Pakistan and $400 billion in Iran over the next 25 years. Besides, China is a major player in Central Asia where it has reduced Russia’s relative importance. Investing in Afghanistan also gives China an opportunity to secure a hold over the region. Collectively Afghanistan, Central Asia, Pakistan and Iran are crucial to China’s energy needs.

Third, extending the BRI from Pakistan to Afghanistan is also an attempt by China to ensure peace and stability between the two neighbours whose relations are not exactly cordial at present. In March this year, China effected normalization of ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Through this incident China intended to highlight its role and image as a peacemaker. Beijing would be willing to play the same role in case of Islamabad and Kabul as well.

Fourth, the US has almost no presence in the region extending from Central Asia to Afghanistan and Iran. This gives China a free run to strengthen its footprint without any challenge from the US. This is not the case in other parts of the world where the US and its allies or partners have a sizeable presence.

However, China’s outreach to Afghanistan faces certain challenges. First, security remains a major concern in Afghanistan and its neighbourhood. The Taliban-takeover of Afghanistan is itself a security threat not just for Afghanistan but also for South and Central Asia. The security angle in Afghanistan has few aspects i.e. (a) Taliban maintains close ties with Al Qaeda and the two groups (alliance in 1994), have survived the United States-led war on terror in Afghanistan. In 2020, under the Doha Agreement, the Taliban had agreed to not provide space to Al Qaeda, but failed to honour the commitment. Al Qaeda still gets safe haven in Afghanistan which exacerbates the threat perception emanating out of Afghanistan; (b) while the Taliban remains a security threat, its rule in Afghanistan is not unchallenged. As Afghanistan has become a fertile ground for breeding terror groups, the Islamic State in Khorasan Province (ISKP) – a regional affiliate of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) – has emerged as a major security threat parallel to the Taliban. Since the Taliban-takeover, the ISKP has been challenging its rule in Afghanistan. As the Taliban seeks international recognition, the ISKP has been carrying out attacks across Afghanistan thereby keeping Afghanistan unstable. These incidents also make it difficult for the international community to grant legitimacy to the Taliban due to lack of control over the security situation. The ISKP has been targeting places such as diplomatic missions and other places frequented by foreigners; and (c) China has also been at the receiving end of the unstable security situation in Afghanistan. The attacks carried out by the ISKP have targeted the Chinese in Afghanistan. For any expansion of the BRI to Afghanistan, Beijing would first have to consider the threat to its nationals and explore ways to cooperate with the Taliban to address the security concerns.  

Furthermore, for BRI to work in Afghanistan, Beijing would need to put in extra diplomatic efforts. It is a transnational and trans-regional project requiring cooperation of multiple entities simultaneously. While China’s maneuvering may be justified on the grounds of economic stakes it has in the region, there are practical difficulties. The BRI is likely to succeed if there is coordination between Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran, essentially an inter-regional cooperation, even if informal, between South, Central and West Asia.

South and Central Asia remain two of the least integrated regions in the world. Attempts towards regional integration in South Asia in the form of South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) have not been successful. Same is the case with Central Asia. Although West Asia has a grouping in the form of Gulf Cooperation Council, Iran remains isolated despite mending fences with the Arab countries in recent times.

Further, there are faultlines among Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran as well. Since the past one year, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), having links to the Afghan Taliban, has been carrying out attacks across Pakistan. This has led to friction between Pakistan and Afghanistan. China has not remained unscathed from these incidents since Chinese have also been targeted in terror attacks in Pakistan, similar to Afghanistan.

Recently, Iran and Afghanistan have also been involved in deadly border clashes. In May Iran and Afghanistan clashed with each other over water sharing dispute. This incident could potentially add to instability that Afghanistan and Iran are already experiencing. Relations between Pakistan and Iran also remain tentative. Last month, six Iranian border guards were killed by a terror group near Pakistan border in Iran’s Sistan-Baluchistan province. This terror attack has put in jeopardy Pakistan’s plan to import electricity from Iran. This proposed transmission was planned for supplying electricity to Pakistan’s Gwadar port, a part of China’s BRI.

While China may look to expand its influence across South, Central and West Asia there are regional complexities to be overcome. In its attempts to score a point over the US bringing Afghanistan and Iran into its own fold, China would need to find solution to the internal turmoil of these countries as well as bring them work together towards China’s economic goal in the region.

Mr. Niranjan Marjani is a political analyst and researcher based in Vadodara, India.