Taiwan has been an irritant in the United States (US)-China relations for a long time and it is once again in the forefront of the bilateral ties of the two powers. On May 21, the US Navy Acting Secretary Hung Cao said that Washington is pausing $14 billion arms sale to Taipei. This development comes close on the heels of the US President Donald Trump’s meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing earlier in May. Cao confirmed that Trump was non-committal about selling arms to Taiwan during his talks with Xi Jinping.

For its part, a spokesperson of Taiwan’s presidential office maintained that they have no information about the US’s stand. The pause in arms sale to Taiwan was to ensure that the US has enough munitions for Operation Epic Fury, the code name for the US-Israel war against Iran going on since February 28. However, following the declaration of halt of arms sell to Taiwan, Trump said that he may speak with Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te although there are no concrete plans regarding the same at the moment.

While the war against Iran is presented as a pretext for stopping the sale of defence equipment to Taiwan, this step also points towards China slightly gaining leverage over the US in the former’s regional affairs. Further, this step from the US is indicative of the increasing flux in the global order.

First, when Trump visited Beijing, Xi Jinping made no efforts to shield the display of China’s apparent supremacy over the US. Trump’s visit failed to live up to the hype that was generated before he travelled to Beijing. For its part, China made sure that Trump left without any deal or agreement. There was also no joint communique or a press conference. Neither was there a breakthrough on Iran or Taiwan.

In contrast, when Russian President Vladimir Putin travelled to Beijing, only days after Trump’s visit, Xi Jinping accorded him with all the honours that were skipped for Trump. Besides, Putin’s visit resulted in Russia and China signing as many as 20 agreements ranging from trade to technology.

The diverse reception that China accorded to the Presidents of US and Russia indicates that Beijing does not consider Washington as a superpower or even an equal power. Also, Washington’s apparent retreat in the form of not committing to Taiwan’s defence has further strengthened Beijing’s position in the global affairs. This development could be considered as a hint of the US’s waning influence since from optics point of view, Trump’s China visit looked more like a forced visit than a courtesy call.

Second, the flux and shift in the global order have long term implications for Taiwan as well as the Indo-Pacific Region. The US has always viewed Taiwan as an important strategic partner in the Indo-Pacific Region. Despite absence of formal diplomatic relations, the US and Taiwan have enjoyed strong unofficial ties. Taiwan The US-Taiwan relations are guided by the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 and the three Joint US-China Communiques. The US policy towards Taiwan emerged in 1970s parallel to Washington reaching out to Beijing. The US has been careful not to antagonize China but at the same time cultivated carefully calibrated engagements with Taiwan.

The US’s policy has been that of strategic ambiguity. For decades, this policy seemed to be effective as all the three parties – the US, Taiwan and China – did not test the limits of conflicts. However, in the past two decades, as Taiwan’s experiments with democracy have gained traction, China’s insistence on One China Policy has also become louder. For a long time, China restrained itself from attacking Taiwan due to the possibility of the US coming to Taiwan’s rescue. However, since the past about one decade, Beijing’s assertion has been on the rise. Chinese military aircraft and naval vessels have regularly infiltrated Taiwan’s airspace and maritime boundaries respectively.

Washington’s current non-committal stand on arms sale to Taipei could not only jeopardize the latter’s security; it could have security implications for the wider Indo-Pacific Region as well. Already China is involved in territorial disputes in the South China Sea with countries like Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia. By increasing hostility towards Taiwan, China would further expand its strategic assertion in the region, which in turn threatens the freedom of navigation and rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific Region. Through economic cooperation, China has positioned itself as the largest trade and investment partner of the Southeast Asian countries. It implies that China is already posing challenge for the US’s engagement in the region.

While Taiwan may have been a major deterrent for the US against China in the Indo-Pacific Region, the recent developments hint towards the US not keen on holding on to that advantage.

Mr. Niranjan Marjani is a political analyst and researcher based in Vadodara, India.