Following its successful raid on Venezuela and toppling of Nicolás Maduro, the US has now turned its attention to Iran. Change in regime in Iran and the possibility of gaining access to its rich oil reserves may be a driving factor for the US. Furthermore, it is continuously applying pressure on Iran to yield to talks and reach an agreement on the nuclear deal by increasing military-naval presence in the region particularly through aircraft carriers. In January 2026, USS Abraham Lincoln was deployed in the Middle East, and now USS Gerald R. Ford has been diverted from the Caribbean to the Middle East as an additional deterrent against Tehran.

In their long-standing rivalry, Iran appears to be a Gordian Knot for the US. Gordian Knot is a proverbial complex problem in Greek mythology to which Alexander proposed a solution of taking bold action. However, it is pertinent to consider diverse perspectives surrounding a possible military action by Washington to untie the Gordian Knot that Tehran apparently presents.

For the US, armed intervention in Iran may seem a tempting option, at least to force Iran into a deal of the former’s choice. The US may also have a reason to anticipate that help may not flow into Iran even from its closest allies should the US conduct a military operation. Iran’s closest allies remain Russia and China. Russia’s military resources are already stretched thin from the war with Ukraine which implies that Moscow is unlikely to be of any major help to Tehran.

China, on the other hand, despite having deep economic interests in Iran, is also unlikely to get involved in the US-Iran conflict. Beijing with all its economic assertion and construction of dual use infrastructure across the world, hardly pays any heed in case its economic or strategic partner is involved in a conflict with any third country, particularly with the US.

However, the conflict with Iran also presents a few red flags for the US. First, although China and Russia may not show enthusiasm in supporting Iran in case of an attack by the US, there would be little support for Washington from its Middle Eastern allies. Close US allies like Saudi Arabia and the UAE do not seem to be very keen on taking military action against Iran. This reluctance is despite the fact that Tehran is a rival of both Riyadh and Abu Dhabi in the Middle Eastern politics. The intra-Middle East rivalry is shaped by competition between Iran and the Arab world for gaining supremacy of the Muslim world. Should the US take military action against Iran or should the Arab countries side with the US, it could give Iran an opportunity to position itself as a victim and gain sympathy among the Islamic world.

Further, any action by the US that causes a regime change in Iran could ring alarm bells in the Arab world as this could be interpreted as the return of the Arab Spring in the region. Toppling of Tehran’s regime could be considered as a threat by Arab monarchies which may start viewing the US with suspicion as in the future the US could follow a similar template in case of Arab countries as well. An exception to all this could be Israel which may not be totally averse to dealing with Iran with an iron hand.

Second, any armed conflict between the US and Iran would disrupt oil and non-oil trade flow in the Strait of Hormuz. About 20% of the global oil trade passes through the sea lane between Iran and Oman. Disruption of this high-volume energy supply would invite friction between the US and various regional and extra regional powers.

Third, the US is already facing problems in its ties with its close partners like India and the European countries. Imposition of tariffs and military spending are the causes of the US’ discord with India and the European countries respectively. India, along with the Middle Eastern countries and the European Union (EU), is engaged in the development of the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (of which the US is also a part). This corridor is crucial for the economies of both India as well as European countries as it would reduce the distance of the trade flow between the two sides. It implies that through military action against Tehran, Washington could further antagonize New Delhi and Brussels.

The US-Iran rivalry dates back to more than four decades since the Islamic Revolution in 1979. Since the past 47 years, Iran has been a Gordian Knot for the US. However, bold action, implying military strike, may not be the best option for the US given its own and its partners’ interests in the region.

Mr. Niranjan Marjani is a political analyst and researcher based in Vadodara, India.