28 June 2025 The security situation in the Middle East is getting precarious with growing number of conflicts. The conflict between Israel and Iran and the recent strikes by the United States (US) on Iran have increased the complexities in the region, which is already unstable for almost two years because of the Israel-Hamas war.

As the Middle East remains on the edge, the impact of the growing conflict between Iran on one side and the US and Israel on the other would hardly remain restricted to the region. In fcat the conflict in the Middle East is affecting the wider Indo-Pacific Region as well. The Middle East, overseeing the Western Indian Ocean, is not just a sub-region of the Indo-Pacific Region, it also plays the role of connecting Asia with Europe. With Europe’s growing engagements with the Indo-Pacific, security and stability in the Middle East is imperative for the economic and strategic stability of the Indo-Pacific.

The recent strikes by the US on Iran are likely to impact the security of the Indo-Pacific Region, at least in the Indian Ocean component of the Indo-Pacific.

While the US may claim that it has reduced the threat that Iran poses to Israel and the US, the frictions in the Middle Eastern politics have become more pronounced. It implies that competition between Iran and the Gulf Arab States, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE, for supremacy of the Muslim world would continue. Among the Arab States Qatar has enjoyed close ties with Iran. However after the attack on Al-Udeid air base, even if it was considered symbolic, relations between Iran and Qatar may experience friction.

Despite its claims of military superiority over Israel and the US, Iran today has weakened. With top military commanders and nuclear scientists killed in Israel’s and the US’ strikes, Iran is unlikely to pose any grave threat to Israel and the US in the immediate future. However, this should not be construed as Iran looking to build cordial ties with Israel and the US. With the US unable to effect a regime change, there is no possibility of ending hostilities between Iran and the US.

Similarly, a weak Iran is also in the interest of the Gulf Arab States as these countries would have lesser competition for dominating the Muslim world, at least for some time. However, there is again a remote possibility of any improvement in ties between Iran and the Gulf Arab States implying the instability in the region is likely to continue.

Unstable Middle East could mean that initiatives like the I2U2 (India-Israel-United States-UAE) and the India-Middle East-Europe-Economic Corridor (IMEC) could face challenges for some time. Both these initiatives are not restricted to specific regions and countries, but are a part of the economic engagements in the Indo-Pacific Region. The stakeholders of these projects may have to bide their time to implement the connectivity initiatives until security situation in the Middle East becomes normal.  

Further, a weak Iran also benefit China. Iran’s hostilities with the US and the West had already pushed the former closer to China. Now since Iran’s friction with the US and the West has increased and Muslim countries being reluctant to stand by Iran’s side, China would play a greater role in supporting Iran bilaterally and on international forums. The Iran-US hostility allows China to increase its role in the Indian Ocean Region thereby posing a strategic challenge to the US and its partner in the Indo-Pacific Region.

The US’ attack on Iran may have been for a limited objective of destroying the latter’s nuclear programme. However, these apparent limited attacks are likely to have spillover effect for the Indo-Pacific Region.

Mr. Niranjan Marjani is a political analyst and researcher based in Vadodara, India.