Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Saudi Arabia earlier this month. The two countries signed a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement, 35 memorandums of understanding and deals worth $30 billion. Jinping’s visit to Saudi Arabia is being perceived as a shift in the geopolitical dynamics of the Middle East wherein the latter. China’s outreach is considered as the Middle East effecting a closer alignment with China, and gradually moving away from its Western allies, in particular the United States (US).

However, there are three factors that merit consideration regarding China’s outreach to the Middle East in the backdrop of the intense China-US rivalry in the Middle East. First, China’s foray into the Middle East is not sudden as is being projected; instead Beijing has been steadily building up its presence in the region since past two decades. In 2001, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) adopted the ‘going out’ strategy which called for expanding Chinese investment footprint in foreign countries. Middle East being one of the unexploited markets caught China’s attention. As a result, China’s trade with the Middle East increased by 87% between 2005 and 2009. China’s investments in the Middle East too increased from $1 billion in 2005 to $11 billion in 2009.

By 2015, China surpassed the US as the largest importer of crude oil in the world from the Middle East. China further gave a boost to its Middle East focus with the release of Arab Policy Paper in 2016 which called for deepening strategic cooperation with the Middle Eastern countries as well strengthening ties in the areas of energy security, investment and trade.

China has also invested heavily in port and infrastructure projects in the Middle East. These initiatives allow China to secure trade routes to Africa and Europe. 21 Arab countries are part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Also China became the largest trading partner of the Gulf States in 2020.

Second, China’s outreach is perceived only from the point of view of its rivalry with the US. But it is equally important to consider the recent developments from the perspective of the foreign policies of the Middle Eastern countries who have been showing a trend of acting independently in their foreign engagements. It implies that these states are no longer solely reliant on the US. While the US is still a major strategic partner for the Middle Eastern countries, China has emerged as a preferred economic partner. It can be observed that China’s engagements in the Middle East are mostly geo-economic in nature.

Economic interests are further preventing China from taking sides in the geopolitics of the Middle East at least at present. China has high economic stakes in Arab countries as well as their rival Iran. For the Middle East, diversification of external engagement has been a key factor in China’s rise in the region. Oil and strategic domain are no longer the only defining factors of engagements which made the US a dominant power in the region. Middle East’s appetite for investments and technology is driving it towards diversification of foreign engagements.  

Third, what are India’s options in the geopolitical and geo-economic flux in the Middle East? New Delhi has taken considerable strides in diversifying its ties with the Middle East countries. India’s own quest for multilateralism as well as Middle East’s preference for diversification has complemented both the sides.

Oil and remittances from Indian Diaspora in the Middle East are no longer the dominant factors in the India-Middle East relations. India has done well to become an important part of the Middle East’s emerging geopolitical, economic and technological landscape.

This is evident from the fact that India and the UAE signed Comprehensive Strategic Partnership in 2017 and India and Saudi Arabia signed Strategic Council Partnership agreement in 2019. India and the UAE also entered into Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) in February this year.

It is pertinent to note that India has boosted cooperation with the Gulf States, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE in emerging technologies such as Artificial Intelligence, Blockchain and Analytics cyber security and space technology. The cooperation is expected to gain traction in a few years. India is working with Saudi Arabia and the UAE in the areas of renewable energy. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have also expressed interests in procuring BrahMos – India’s indigenous supersonic cruise missile.

The Middle Eastern countries are expected to continue with an independent and multilateral foreign policy which would facilitate cooperation with multiple powers, some with conflicting interests. India would have to work around in the altering dynamics of the Middle Eastern politics. As regards to countering China’s influence, India and other like-minded countries would need to frame their policies centring on geo-economic and technology driven areas.

India could expect greater cooperation due to the fact that it offers Middle East an option of diversification and thereby preventing overdependence on China. This combined with India’s market potential and investment opportunities would act as leverage to attract the Middle Eastern countries.

Mr. Niranjan Marjani is a political analyst and researcher based in Vadodara, India.