Narendra Modi took oath as India’s prime minister for the third consecutive time on 9th June 2024. His oath-taking ceremony indicated a continuity of the ceremonies of previous two terms in 2014 and 2019 with focus on foreign policy. The leaders from India’s neighbourhood as well as from extended neighbourhood - Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, Sri Lanka, the Maldives and Mauritius, were invited and the presence of the Maldivian president was an opportunity for a reset.

Among all the attendees to the oath-taking ceremony, the Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu was probably the one that got most focus. Since Muizzu was elected as the Maldives’ president in 2023, India-Maldives relations have been going through politico-diplomatic-economic-strategic strain. Muizzu chose China as his first foreign destination after becoming president, Chinese marine scientific research vessel visited the Maldives, Muizzu asked India to withdraw its military personnel from his country and Indian citizens boycotted Maldives as a tourist destination.

Muizzu was one of the leading figures of the ‘India Out’ campaign in the Maldives which was a reversal of the past bilateral relations that had been strengthened during President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih’s term. Despite the deterioration in relations, New Delhi had continued courting Male through various measures like extending budget support of $50 million and increasing export quotas of essential commodities. Amid these developments, Muizzu’s visit to India could be expected to revive the India-Maldives relations. It is important for New Delhi to continue engaging with Male despite the latter’s overt tilt towards Beijing. For the Maldives, India is the first responder in emergencies as also a reliable economic partner. For India, keeping the Maldives close is necessary to ensure that China does not gain a strong foothold in India’s proximity.

Besides, if symbolism holds any significance in international relations, then the seating arrangement of the banquet held after the oath-taking ceremony is indicative. During this banquet the Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu and the Sri Lankan President Ranil Wickremesinghe sat on the either side of Prime Minister Modi. This could be considered as a signal that along with the thrust on the Neighbourhood First Policy, India is also keen on pursuing a strong sub-regional initiative. India, Sri Lanka and the Maldives are engaged in a trilateral cooperation in maritime security.

However, this trilateral initiative has also been subject to ups and downs caused primarily due to the foreign policy leanings of the president of the Maldives. Previously this initiative suffered between 2013 and 2018 when Abdulla Yameen, who favoured China over India, was in power. While the initiative was revived in 2020, the election of Mohamed Muizzu, again a China-leaning president of the Maldives, did put a question mark on the continuity of the trilateral cooperation. However, the recent efforts from the Maldives to reach out to India and Muizzu’s description of his India visit as a success should propel the India-Sri Lanka-Maldives trilateral cooperation further.

Mindful of the fact that regional integration has not been successful in South Asia owing to disputes with Pakistan, India has carved out various ways of engaging with neighbours. Circumventing Pakistan, India continues to build upon the strong ties it has with its other neighbours like Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan and the Maldives. Not only India engages with these countries at bilateral level, it also interacts with them at multilateral forums like the BIMSTEC. The trilateral cooperation between India, Sri Lanka and the Maldives is indicative of a functional multilateral arrangement focused on shared objectives and concerns in an otherwise fragmented South Asia.  

China’s advances in India’s neighbourhood had shaped India’s responses in a way that India has had to approach its neighbours as important states in the Indo-Pacific Region and not just individual countries in South Asia. While India’s ties with countries like Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Nepal and Bhutan have been relatively stable, relations with the Maldives have witnessed most fluctuations.

Amid the growing animosity between the two South Asian neighbours for the past few months, Muizzu accepting invitation to attend Modi’s oath-taking ceremony is a welcome development in India-Maldives relations. Despite the strain in ties, India has quietly continued with developing the infrastructure projects in the Maldives that were started during Solih’s term. For its part, the Maldives, realizing the contribution of Indian tourists to its economy, has been urging Indians to choose the Maldives as a favoured tourist destination.

Modi’s third term has started on a positive note with indications of a reset in the India-Maldives relations. It is important for India to continue engaging with the Maldives so as not to lose the strategic advantage to China.

Mr. Niranjan Marjani is a political analyst and researcher based in Vadodara, India.