Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis travelled to Ankara, Türkiye on May 6 where he held talks with the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Greece and Türkiye, both NATO allies, have been at odd with each other over a range of issues.

Both countries share a difficult relationship as disagreements between them have intensified in the past few years over several issues that include maritime boundaries, energy resources in the Eastern Mediterranean, flights over the Aegean Sea and the ethnic divisions in Cyprus. The two sides were engaged in a naval stand-off in 2020 due to dispute over exploring natural resources in the Eastern Mediterranean.

Their ties showed some thaw last year when Erdoğan sought to repair Türkiye’s overall strained ties with the western countries. Following this thaw Erdoğan visited Athens in December 2023 and the two countries signed Declaration of Athens in an attempt to reboot their ties.

During their recent meeting Greece and Türkiye agreed to keep communication channels open and engage in military confidence-building measures. Mitsotakis acknowledged that the problems facing the two sides were serious which were not going to disappear overnight. As a measure to normalize the ties, Greece eased visa requirement for Turkish tourists to visit 10 Greek islands by allowing on-the-spot visas instead of a lengthy procedure required to enter Europe’s Schengen area.

These bilateral initiatives could be considered as an encouraging indication of the two neighbours wanting to improve their ties. The two sides have also agreed to navigate around the contentious issues and focus on positive agenda that could promote cordial ties. However the current geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East coupled with Greece’s long term economic and strategic interests could result in creating roadblocks between the two countries in their quest for establishing lasting peace.

In particular the Israel factor could be a major impediment for Greece and Türkiye to strengthen ties while circumventing their disputes. During this recent meeting, the two Mediterranean neighbours differed over views on the Israel-Hamas war. Specifically the two leaders have divergent views on Hamas. Greece, like most of the western countries considers Hamas as a terrorist organization; Türkiye, for its part, refuses to term Hamas as a terror outfit. During his meeting with Mitsotakis, Erdoğan termed Hamas as a resistance organization fighting for the rights of the Palestinians.  

However, the differences between Greece and Türkiye are not limited to only the ongoing Israel-Hamas war. The overall ties with Israel could also define to what extent the two neighbours are willing to go an extra mile to resolve their own differences.

For Greece, Israel is an important economic partner. Several new gas discoveries in the Mediterranean in the past one decade are facilitating Israel to position itself as a major exporter of energy to the Eastern Mediterranean countries. Greece, which is one of the beneficiaries of Israeli’s energy exports, is engaged in trilateral energy cooperation with Israel and Cyprus.

In September last year, at the 9th Trilateral Summit held at Nicosia, Cyprus, Greece, Israel and Cyprus agreed to deepen energy cooperation particularly in the areas of natural gas, electricity and renewable energy. In May this year, the representatives of Israel, Greece and Cyprus held a meeting in Cyprus to discuss the implementation of Israel’s Great Sea Interconnector (GSI) project. This project has two segments – Israel-Cyprus and Cyprus-Greece. The GSI would intertwine Israel with the European energy network.

Along with energy cooperation, Greece and Israel are also defence partners. In 2021, the two countries signed their biggest ever defence agreement. This agreement, worth $1.65 billion, provides for establishment and operation of a training centre for the Hellenic Air Force by Israeli defence contractor Elbit Systems over a 22-year period. In April 2023, Israel signed a $400 million deal to sell Spike anti-tank missiles to Greece.

In contrast to this Türkiye recently suspended its trade ties with Israel. Following the start of the Israel-Hamas war, Türkiye, one of the first Muslim countries to establish ties with Israel, has been critical of Israel. In retaliation to Türkiye’s actions, Israel is set to abolish its free trade agreement with Türkiye. These developments indicate growing deterioration in Türkiye’s ties with Israel.

In addition to opposing Israel, Türkiye is treating injured Hamas fighters in its hospitals. Contrary to Türkiye’s steps, Greece has been taking action on protestors taking part in the rally in support of Palestine. Besides, Greece is one of the European countries that are an important transit hub which would be the part of the proposed India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC). Israel is also a part of this corridor. Greece’s strong economic and strategic ties with Israel could cast a shadow on the Greece-Türkiye relations.

For Türkiye opposing Israel is not just a means to show solidarity with Palestine. It also implies that championing cause of Palestine is a covert attempt on the part of Türkiye to project itself as a leader in the Muslim world. With Arab countries warming up to Israel in the past few years and losing interest in Palestine’s cause, Türkiye could take this opportunity though it is unclear whether such an approach would lead any positive results for Türkiye.

Following years of discord, Greece and Türkiye are taking steps to find ways to build cordial ties. However Greece’s economic and strategic interests and Türkiye’s regional ambitions are unlikely to converge and any normalization in their ties appears a challenging task.

Mr. Niranjan Marjani is a political analyst and researcher based in Vadodara, India.