Southeast Asia has been in focus with a series of diplomatic engagements that include the East Asia Summit, the ASEAN-India Commemorative Summit and the US-ASEAN Summit in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit in Bangkok, Thailand and the G-20 Summit in Bali, Indonesia.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has been central to the geopolitical construct of the Indo-Pacific region. Countries like India and Australia and minilateral organization like the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue or the Quad acknowledge the ASEAN-centrality in their respective policies towards the Indo-Pacific region. At the recent US-ASEAN Summit, both sides launched the US-ASEAN Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, and the US reaffirmed its commitment to ASEAN-centrality and the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP).

The overall geopolitical construct of the Indo-Pacific region, as shaped by India, the US, Japan and Australia, with ASEAN-centrality is essentially a counterbalance to China. However, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war has dominated the discourse across various diplomatic forums irrespective of geographic location or a strategic construct. The war has caused economic distress particularly in the areas of food security, supply chains and energy supplies. In this crisis situation, the Indo-Pacific region could emerge as a catalyst.

Russia is not naturally associated with the Indo-Pacific region and has also been averse to the concept. It has primarily been a European power with Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia and Eurasia falling within its sphere of influence. However, recent events indicate that Russia may eventually accommodate the Indo-Pacific region in its strategic discourse. In this process, India could be the facilitator.

Firstly, in July this year, the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) became operational with the first cargo from Russia arriving in India through Iran. INSTC enables India to have faster access to Russia, Eurasia and European countries than the existing route through Suez Canal. For Russia as well the INSTC provides a shorter route to South Asia, Middle East and Africa. While India continues its association with the Quad and the I2U2 (India, Israel, the US, UAE), cooperation with Russia in the form of INSTC in the western Indian Ocean is important for a quicker outreach to Europe.

Similarly, India and Russia have proposed a maritime trade corridor between Chennai in India and Vladivostok in Russia. The Chennai-Vladivostok trade corridor would cover Sea of Japan, East and South China Sea and the Bay of Bengal.  

In addition to defence cooperation and energy supplies, connectivity is also rapidly occupying an important position in India’s ties with Russia. Addressing the plenary session of the seventh Eastern Economic Forum in September this year, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi said that connectivity will play an important role in India’s relations with Russia.

Secondly, these connectivity initiatives could be a driving factor for Russia to re-align its approach towards the Indo-Pacific region. In his paper Russia and the Indo-Pacific Security Concept published in May 2021, Dr. Neil Melvin, Director, International Security Studies at Royal United Services Institute writes about how post-annexation of Crimea in 2014, Moscow has been making efforts to shift its focus away from the Euro-Atlantic region. The further deterioration of ties with European countries in the wake of war with Ukraine could alter Russia’s outlook towards the Indo-Pacific Region.

Thirdly, India’s presence could result in addressing Russia’s concerns regarding the strategic construct of the Indo-Pacific region. Russia has previously termed the concept of the Indo-Pacific as divisive and exclusivist. But India’s view is inclusive. India’s vision of SAGAR (Security And Growth for All in the Region) accommodates interests of all the powers. Further India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi, while addressing the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore in 2018 had acknowledge that regional and extra regional powers have stake in the Indo-Pacific Region and interests of all must be protected. India’s vision of the Indo-Pacific region should assuage Russia’s concerns regarding the character of this geopolitical construct.

Fourthly, accommodating Russia in the Indo-Pacific region could be a counter to China. This idea may seem far-fetched in the present context. But support to Ukraine and imposition of sanctions by the West has pushed Russia closer to China. Any further alienation of Russia would only create more polarization. The Indo-Pacific region’s engagement with Russia is concomitant to India’s vision of inclusiveness. Also diversified economic engagements could reduce Russia’s dependence on China in the long run.

The Indo-Pacific region has a potential to be a catalyst that could mitigate the conflict between Russia and the West. In this process, India’s continued interactions with Russia could prove to be a vital factor. India is one of the few countries engaging closely with Russia as well as the West even as the war with Ukraine has polarized most of the world. India’s balanced policies towards the conflicting sides as well as its approach to the Indo-Pacific region could have a role in resolution of the Russia-Ukraine war.

Mr Niranjan Marjani is a Political Analyst and Researcher based in Vadodara, India. He tweets at @NiranjanMarjani