Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. visited Vietnam on 30 January 2024 and held wide ranging talks that covered areas like agriculture, culture, investment and trade. In his meeting with the Vietnamese President Vo Van Thuong, Marcos described Vietnam as the sole strategic partner of the Philippines in the ASEAN region. Vietnam and the Philippines also signed several agreements on defence cooperation which include agreements on high-level contacts, information sharing, defence dialogue mechanisms, counter terrorism, cyber security and peace-keeping operations.

However, the regional geopolitics was the major theme underlying the recent interaction between these two countries. The focus was on two memoranda of understanding (MoU) that covered incident prevention in the South China Sea and maritime cooperation between the coast guards.

The visit by Marcos Jr. assumes importance as in the recent times the friction between the Philippines and China has been on the rise. Besides, both Vietnam and the Philippines are involved in territorial dispute with China in the South China Sea. China also has territorial disputes with Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia and Taiwan.

It is necessary to consider this latest development from the perspectives of the Philippines, Vietnam and the ASEAN. For the Philippines, the agreement could be considered as a shot in the arm as in recent times it has become the country that has had maximum run-ins with China in the contested waters of the South China Sea. Particularly China has been interfering with the Philippine garrison at Second Thomas Shoal. Second Thomas Shoal lies in the Philippines’ Exclusive Economic Zone 200 kilometers west of the archipelago. The Philippines has stationed a small number of troops on a World War II ship grounded in 1999 as an outpost at Second Thomas Shoal.

China has been disputing this claim and objecting to the Philippines sending supplies to its troops. In December 2023, Chinese coast guard vessels blocked the Philippines’ supply mission to this shoal. Earlier this month China objected to the Philippines positioning a small civilian vessel on the beach of an atoll in the Spratly Islands, over which both the Philippines and China lay sovereign claim.

Agreement with Vietnam could add to the Philippines strengthening its strategic profile in Southeast Asia. Previously, the Philippines expanded the scope of the Mutual Defense Treaty with the United States when Marcos visited Washington in May 2023 towards maintaining peace and stability in the South China Sea as well as in the Taiwan Strait.  

Vietnam, although being a party to territorial disputes with China, has been taking a more balanced approach. In what is termed as Bamboo Diplomacy, Vietnam has been taking steps to maintain cordial ties with major powers. In particular Vietnam has sought to balance its ties with the United States and China. Apart from the United States and China, Vietnam has the same level of ties with India, Japan, South Korea and Russia. With its strategic location in Southeast Asia, Vietnam has been pursuing a policy supporting a multi-polar order and has been attempting to remain outside of the United States-China rivalry.

For the ASEAN, China presents a strategic challenge as also a dilemma. It is also the largest trading partner of the ASEAN. Besides not all the ASEAN members have territorial disputes with China. Further, In November 2023, China hosted a joint military exercise with five ASEAN member countries that included Cambodia, Laos, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam. This exercise was not only intended by China to assert its regional power status in South China Sea, it was also intended to create divisions within the ASEAN members.

Among the ASEAN member states, currently the Philippines remains the country with most number of conflicts with China in the South China Sea. As regards to the ASEAN, the grouping has been facing divisions within the grouping over a number of issues. Consensus among the ASEAN member states to counter China’s belligerence is difficult to achieve due to ASEAN’s economic dependence on China.

Vietnam has adopted a balancing strategy despite having disputes with China, and the current agreement is most beneficial for the Philippines as it looks for partners at regional level in addition to having strategic cooperation with the United States. The agreement can potentially impact or even alter the geopolitics of the South China Sea if it paves way for greater cohesion among the ASEAN member states to address shared geopolitical challenges.

Mr. Niranjan Marjani is a political analyst and researcher based in Vadodara, India.