Japan’s defence ministry requested a defence budget of $53 billion (7.7 trillion yen) for the 2024 fiscal year. This proposal is 12% higher than the previous year and is the largest-ever defence budget request. The hike in defence spending is in tune with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s plan, announced in 2022, to increase the military spending by 43 trillion yen over the next five years. Japan has set a target of doubling the defence spending to 2% of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 2027.

If the proposed budget requirement is approved, Japan can acquire 15 US-made fifth generation F-35A and F-35B fighter jets, precision guided missiles and upgrade troop and equipment transportation capabilities. The F-35 fighter jets are equipped to conduct tactical nuclear bombings, air-to-air missions and intelligence gathering. This defence budget also provides for the construction of two destroyers fitted with US Aegis ballistic missile system Japan and the United States will also jointly develop the Glide Phase Interceptor (GPI) to counter hypersonic missiles.

Increase in defence budget is interpreted as Japan abandoning its pacifist policy that it adopted post-Second World War. Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution, which is also known as pacifist clause, renounces war as a sovereign right of the people and rejects threat or use of force as a means of settling disputes. Conservative section of Japanese society has remained dissatisfied with this clause and has been demanding amendment to the Constitution. While the debate about constitutional amendment continues, Japanese government has subtly made suitable shifts from the pacifist policy.

The dramatic increase in defence spending is also linked to China’s and North Korea’s belligerence in Japan’s neighbourhood and is being criticized as contributing to the instability in Japan’s immediate neighbourhood and also in the wider Indo-Pacific Region. However, the increased defence spending is concomitant to Japan’s approaches and responses to the changing geopolitical equations in the Indo-Pacific Region over the past few years.

Japan has been the proponent of the strategic construct of the Indo-Pacific region when former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe pitched the idea of confluence of two oceans – the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean – while addressing the Indian parliament in 2007.

Japan’s defence strategy not only includes a counter to China’s and North Korea’s aggression in its neighbourhood, it also includes outreach to the Indo-Pacific Region and cooperation with like-minded countries to protect rules-based order and freedom of navigation.  

Japan and China have long been involved in a dispute over Senkaku Islands that China claims as its own. Chinese naval ships have violated Japanese territorial waters frequently. The Senkaku Islands are located in the East China Sea. China’s territorial disputes in the region range from the South China Sea to the East China Sea. China has also increased its military presence in Japan’s vicinity. China has deployed advanced weapon systems which increases the possibility of clashes with Japan. In its 2021 Defence White Paper, Japan stated that China’s military modernization was a security threat.

Deepening military cooperation with Japan is imperative for the United States as any threat to Japan translates to China’s advancement in the Pacific Ocean and a confrontation with the United States.

Japan also views that the Russia-Ukraine war could encourage China with more territorial aggression. The threat perception from the China-Russia cooperation exacerbated in July as the two countries carried out naval drills in the Sea of Japan. The naval drills were held parallel to the trilateral meeting between the US President Joe Biden, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and South Korean Prime Minister Yoon Suk-yeol at Camp David, US. Also just as this summit was underway, North Korea launched a ballistic missile. North Korea’s own conflict with the US over the years has pushed the former to deepen its ties with China and Russia. The China-Russia-North Korea troika has magnified the strategic divide in Japan’s neighbourhood. These rapid developments have caused Japan to rethink its defence strategy.

However, apart from the traditional security threats, Japan has also played a proactive role in countering non-traditional security threats in the wider Indo-Pacific Region and in cooperation with like-minded countries to address common threats.

Japan has conducted patrols in Horn of Africa and the Straits of Hormuz to combat piracy through the Japan Self-Defense Force Base in Ambouli, Djibouti. Japan and ASEAN countries have also been cooperating in countering piracy in Southeast Asian waters. With more than 80% of Japan’s oil imports passing through Southeast Asia and the region being Japan’s connectivity to South Asia, Africa and Europe, it is imperative for Japan to devote its resources to counter the challenges posed by piracy.

Growing strategic assertion from China and North Korea in Japan’s neighbourhood may have been considered as an immediate trigger for Japan’s increased defence spending. But this spending also signifies Japan’s pivotal role as a stakeholder in the peace and stability of the Indo-Pacific region.

Mr. Niranjan Marjani is a political analyst and researcher based in Vadodara, India.