As Japan and the Philippines enter the second decade of their strategic partnership, their Foreign and Defence Ministers held the first “Two-Plus-Two” meeting in Tokyo in April 2022. It was during a phone call in November 2021 that Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and the President of Philippines Rodrigo Duterte decided to hold “Two-plus-Two” format dialogue. Earlier, in January 2015, Japan and the Philippines signed an agreement to forge closer strategic and security ties and till date have conducted almost twenty joint naval drills including a joint air exercise in 2021. Though Philippines is the ninth country with whom Japan has this format of talks, the backdrop of the meeting holds much significance given the current geopolitical situations in both Asia and Europe.

At the very outset of the meeting, both the sides condemned Russian aggression in Ukraine calling it an outright violation of international law which had jeopardized the international order. However, what is of more pressing concern to both Tokyo and Manila is the increasing Chinese assertiveness in the region. The Joint Statement issued by the two sides expressed serious concerns regarding Chinese assertive activities in the East and South China Seas where Chinese claims and building of artificial islands have threatened to destabilise the region.

While China continues to ‘needle’ Japan over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands dispute, Philippines has a longstanding dispute with China over the Scarborough Shoal. The Permanent Court of Arbitration at the Hague had in July 2016 ruled in favour of the Philippines; but what was supposed to be a strong pushback against Chinese aggression in the South China Sea was squandered by the Philippines as a mere ‘moral victory’ as China continues its effective control of the disputed territory. Back then, President Duterte had dismissed the ruling and decided not to use it to his country’s advantage on the premise that good relations with Beijing would reap economic benefits for Manila, whereas confrontation could lead to serious repercussions. But Duterte come under heavy criticism as the promised Chinese investments did not materialise. Instead, the Chinese territorial claims and assertiveness have been continuously rising.

Meanwhile, Japan-China tensions were once again on the rise in April 2022 in the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu islands. Chinese Coast Guard Ships had chased away a group of Japanese fishermen. It merits mention that Chinese ships regularly patrol the seas in the vicinity of these Japanese administered islands where Japanese fishermen continue to exercise their fishing rights. But China has increased both its presence and activities around the islands in the recent times which has caused serious concerns to Tokyo. Japan still follows a pacifist constitution which bars it from significantly arming itself.

Although the Joint Statement does not directly allude to China, it categorically mentions the ministers’ objections to “unlawful maritime claims, militarisation and the threat of use of force”. The statement acknowledges the convergences between Japan’s “Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP)” and the “ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP)” and calls for “peace and stability in the region and security of its seas.” The ministers reiterated the shared commitment regarding the principle of Freedom of Navigation and overflights in the both the East and South China Seas, something which has repeatedly appeared in multiple joint statements by Japan and ASEAN as also other claimant States.

Ever since the Russian invasion over Ukraine broke out, India’s External Affairs Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar has been striving to explain to his Western counterparts the need to re-focus on the Indo-Pacific given the larger danger vis-à-vis increasing Chinese aggression challenging the status quo in the region. India, like Japan and the Philippines, shares territorial dispute with China, albeit along the land border. Unilateral Chinese manoeuvres in the disputed Himalayan borders lead to the bloody Galwan valley episode in 2020, following from the Doklam incident of 2017. Relations between the two Asian giants have been on a downward spiral ever since the above incidents.  

India’s security and strategic relationship with the US is on an upward trajectory, and Washington and New Delhi share similar concerns over China. Japan and the Philippines are key US allies in the region. India enjoys good strategic relations with both Japan and the US with all three of them being a part of the QUAD grouping along with Australia.

India’s recent decision to sign a first of its kind US$ 375 million deal with the Philippines to supply the latter with BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles is being viewed as a strong statement against China. While Beijing has consistently tried to outmanoeuvre India in its own backyard, India has finally decided to ‘up the ante’ against Chinese. It is in this context that the Japan-Philippines “Two-Plus-Two” dialogue holds much significance for India. It is fair to argue that smaller countries such as the Philippines could become a part of an extended-expanded QUAD grouping.

Mr Amlan Dutta is Assistant Professor at the Rashtriya Raksha University, Gandhinagar, Gujarat.