President Xi Jinping’s role as mediator between Saudi Arabia and Iran is part of China’s ambitions to establish a toe hold in West Asia with the possibility of greater role in the region in the future given that America seems less engaged in the region now due to sudden withdrawal from Afghanistan.

On 11 March 2023, National Security Advisors from Saudi Arabia and Iran (Musaad Bin Mohammed al Aiban & Ali Shamkhani) met with the Director of the Chinese Communist Party (Wang Yi) foreign relation wing and their engagement is seen as Chinese attempt to outsmart the USA by increasing its role in the region. It is also to gather support from the Arab states on Taiwan. Hence with such mediation President Xi Jinping wants to increase China’s political power in the region and challenge the US led regional arrangement like the recent India, Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and the United States I2U2 grouping and the earlier Accords such as Camp David Accord of 1978 and Oslo Accords of 1993.

China’s mediation attempt resembles the US mediation approach which created more noise on the platforms (social media & news agencies) than on the ground. Chinese callings for mediation between Iran-Saudi and the recent wish to mediate between Palestine-Israel Issue is also an attempt to highlight Chinese soft power against the American standing in the region. These are significant indicators that President Xi Jinping wishes to project himself as the global leader similar to many earlier Presidents of the United States.

Iran and Saudi Arabia are major economic partners of China and the respective cooperation is flourishing on many fronts. While trade between Iran-China was nearly $16 billion in 2022, Saudi Arabia’s exports stood at around $48.7 billion in 2021.

Historically, China has been very cautious in its approach towards the region and never participated in any of the politico-strategic issues of the region. Instead, it enjoyed multiple benefits from the international economic order set up by the US. China also made significant inroads into the region by supplying low-cost products in the region.

However the bigger question is will China use its Cheque Book Diplomacy in the Gulf region for securing strategic access to resources in the region like Africa-mainly when many countries in the region like Yemen, Syria and Iraq still trying to recover from impact of war’s, interventions, destruction of infrastructure and Pandemic. Hence Beijing is less likely to use this strategy as it has used it in Africa, South Asia (Gwadar & CPEC, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh) or in Southeast Asia.  

While opting to undertake leadership role in West Asia via the mediation role China needs to not only understand issues such as instability, rivalry, warfare, and terrorism- which is the enduring feature of the region, but must address these. It merits mention that China appears to ignore the fact that the US still maintains a strong military presence in the region with its CENTCOM and the 5th fleet in Bahrain and Airbase in Qatar, with security facilities in Israel, Jordan, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, and UAE which highlights the politico-diplomatic-strategic heft of US in the region. Furthermore, if the current state of affairs in Pakistan are an indicator, China is not yet primed to enter West Asia. Similarly, Beijing had chosen to stay away from the long wars in the region such as the war in Afghanistan.

However, if China wishes to seriously engage in the region and neutralize (free from competition and rivalry) the US or European influence, the first step could be to involve in Iran’s nuclear issue with the West (P5+1) which is severely impacting the Iranian economy.

At another level, the ‘Belt and Road Initiative’ is an import pathway through which China has enhanced its presence in the region. For instance, the Dqum project in Oman with which Beijing has signed land lease agreements, and established business zones for investment by China based companies. Chinese military base in Djibouti sits at the major choke point in the Gulf of Aden-and Suez Canal enables China to ensure supplies particularly energy to ensure high economic growth.

Beijing has also established forum like China Arab States Cooperation to engage with the region and hosted the 3rd meeting in September 2022 to develop a ‘consensus’ and bolster union for ‘shared future’ in coming years although this forum doesn’t include non-Arab states (Iran, Israel and Turkey) with exception of Syria.-the potential rival challenger to Saudi-led alliance in the region. But same non-Arab counties are being considered in Shanghai Cooperation Organization, where Turkey is the Dialogue partner and Iran has acquired observer status with interest for full membership.

China has maintained good ties with Turkey and Iran. Ankara has forged good ties with China especially under Erdogan marked by frequent visits to Beijing and enhanced cooperation. It is also the major partner in reviving ‘Silk Road’ and Belt and Road project. And with Iran, Beijing shares close cooperation to an extent that it continued its oil purchases even during Sanctions, and both in March 2021 concluded the 25-years Strategic Cooperation pact for strengthening partnership, with such an approach China is trying to create an axis of anti-American countries to challenge American supremacy since the trade war with the USA.

Beijing has so far maintained a transactional partnership in the region hence its facilitation attempt to soften the strategic rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia attracts numerous challenges. Yet by brokering the deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia signals a new Chinese approach in West Asia. This is to ensure smooth supplies of energy to Beijing as it wishes to be ‘global leader’ by 2049 However the big question is whether China will put boots on the ground to stabilize the region?

Mr. Devender Kumar is Assistant Professor at the School of International Cooperation, Security and Strategic Languages (SICSSL), Rashtriya Raksha University, India.