While the world attention is focused on the ongoing parleys between US, Russia and Ukraine over ceasefire, three significant developments concerning Iran have made headlines. First, China, Russia, and Iran met in Beijing in response to President Trump’s renewed threat against Iran over its nuclear programme. They welcomed Iran’s “reiteration that its nuclear programme is exclusively for peaceful purposes”, its “commitment to full compliance with its obligations under the NPT and Comprehensive Safeguard Agreement”, “policy to continue cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)” and endorsed “ right to peaceful uses of nuclear energy as a State Party to the NPT”. Above all they emphasised “abandoning sanction, pressure, or threat of force” allegedly referring to the US sanctions and threat of use of force against Tehran.

This meeting comes in the backdrop of President Trump’s ultimatum calling on Iran that it freeze its nuclear weapons programme. President Trump, has reiterated his call for “maximum pressure” against Iran, and unequivocally warned “There are two ways Iran can be handled: militarily, or you make a deal. I would prefer to make a deal, because I'm not looking to hurt Iran.” Ayatollah Ali Khamenei Iran's Supreme leader has dismissed President Trump’s offer of a “deal” and labelled it as “threatening militarism” ; instead he advised that President Trump’s “threat is unwise”. Furthermore, Khamenei cautioned the US that his country is “capable of retaliating and will definitely inflict a blow."

Iran, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) now has 275 kilograms of 60 % purity level of weapons grade uranium which if enriched to 90 % can, in theoretical terms, result in six nuclear bombs. Iran has denied such insinuations. Also, it is pertinent to mention that the US, during President Trump’s first term, had withdrawn (2021) from negotiations (the 2015 nuclear deal) over Iran’s nuclear programme also referred to as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) between Iran and the five permanent members of the UNSC plus Germany along with the EU.  

Second, the navies of China, Russia, and Iran have conducted joint exercise codenamed Security Belt-2025 in the north Arabian Sea off the Iranian port of Chabahar. The exercises included manoeuvers and actions (striking maritime targets, damage control, and joint search and rescue operations) and firing of “large-calibre machine guns and small arms at targets simulating unmanned boats and unmanned aerial vehicles of a mock enemy,”  The latter is presumably in response to the US led multilateral maritime exercise code named IMX which involves unmanned platforms of the Task Force 59 and many countries including international organizations are invited as observers. The IMX focusses on “preserving the rules-based international order and strengthening regional maritime security cooperation”. US Task Force 59 which is specifically constituted as part of 5th Fleet under the CENTCOM for conducting operations by using unmanned vessels.

Although the contents of the Security Belt-2025 are of rudimentary nature, these are not only symbolic but a stepping block for more complex naval operations in the future involving submarines. China and Iran possess the Russian origin Kilo class submarines and are therefiore primed for interoperability which can challenge US’ naval presence in the Persian Gulf.

Third, is President Trump’s decision to attack the Iran backed Houthi rebels in Yemen. This group has been attacking merchant shipping with missiles, drones and small boat attacks in the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea. It was successful in sinking two vessels, hijacking one ship and and killed four crew members. Besides, the Houthis have conducted swarm drone attacks against US warships and auxiliaries which prompted President Trump to order strikes following his warning to the group that "hell will rain down upon you like nothing you have ever seen before". The US has accused Iran for supporting the Houthis and President Trump pressed Iran to cease its support for the Houthis, warning Tehran will be "fully accountable”.

The above developments must be also seen from the prism of the CRINK (China, Russia, Iran and North Korea) block which is fast emerging as a problem for the US and its allies including the NATO. In particular, the North Korea-Russia Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty, North Korean soldiers fighting alongside their Russian counterparts on the frontlines in Kursk region of Ukraine, supply of North Korean missiles and ammunitions to Russia, are notable. Similarly, Iran has supplied drones and military ordnance to Russia; and China has been accused of supplying dual use technologies to Russia to support the latter’s military industrial complex which has performed well to keep the war fighting efforts against Ukraine in top condition.

Finally, the CRINK block appears to be emerging politically and militarily strong and can be expected to put greater pressure on the US over issues of security and sanctions particularly against Iran and North Korea.

Dr. Vijay Sakhuja is Professor and Head, Center of Excellence for Geopolitics and International Studies (CEGIS), REVA University, Bengaluru and is associated with Kalinga International Foundation, New Delhi.