Since September 2021, when the US, UK and Australia announced the emergence of the AUKUS, a new trilateral mechanism in the Indo-Pacific, the regional debates on the relevance of ASEAN has increased. Those supporting ASEAN and its frameworks agree that this brings a clear shift in terms of how regional geopolitics will shape the wider Indo-Pacific as it will be seen as weakening ASEAN centrality. However, ASEAN as a regional grouping has gone through significant periods of stress as regional geopolitics has evolved since its inception. Over five decades, ASEAN has been through distinct phases in its regionalism model that has withstood the pressures transitions. As the Indo-Pacific context evolves, it will be important for ASEAN to once again look at its relevance and reinvent its centrality to incorporate the changes in the region.

ASEAN’s core understanding addresses the profound changes happening in its immediate neighborhood, but aims to keep its mechanisms relevant to ensure regional economic growth and stability. As the Indo-Pacific shift was increasingly relevant, it was incumbent upon ASEAN to evolve its own approach to the Indo-Pacific which was driven primarily by Indonesia. This emerged as early as June 2019 when the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP) was unveiled. The AOIP is considered to be a `living’ document which will evolve as the regional shifts take place. However, the AOIP while looking at the areas of complementarity refrains from fully addressing the region as the Indo-Pacific. It clearly states that the Asia-Pacific and the Indian Ocean regions are integrated and fast evolving changes are shaping this region, where both economic and strategic competition is evolving. But it falls short of looking at these two regions as a contiguous whole.

Similarly with the unveiling of the AUKUS, there have been significant pulls and pressures on ASEAN. Indonesia has been concerned about the AUKUS pushing the boundaries on the regional arms build-up and destabilizing the region. Malaysia too has expressed concerns and has even suggested that China’s view on the AUKUS will be relevant in gauging the ASEAN response. The media in Thailand and Brunei have carried opinions against the AUKUS with little response from government quarters. Both Singapore and the Philippines showed initial response of accepting it as a welcome step, but news items in the South China Morning Post and Global Times indicate that the Philippines may have done a rethink on its support.

However, in the most recent stand-off between the Philippines and China over the Ayungin Shoal on 16 November 2021, the Philippines Secretary of Foreign Affairs Locsin raised the issue of violations by China and also reiterated that it violated the Mutual Defence Treaty which the Philippines has with the United States, bringing the focus back on the security arrangement it has with the United States. Vietnam’s close ties with the United States reiterate the support for the AUKUS, while both Cambodia and Laos have refrained from any formal comments. Myanmar remains caught in its own political turmoil.

Interestingly at the East Asia Summit last month the ASEAN members elevated their relations with Australia to the level of a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership (CSP), an indication that ties with Australia will not be more strained following the AUKUS. Australia too reiterated that the AUKUS was only acting to bolster the existing regional architecture led by the ASEAN. This is clearly indicative of the layered approach that is visible in the Indo-Pacific, the ASEAN led mechanism offers confidence building measures, while the AUKUS looks at shifting the naval capabilities at a trilateral level, deterring unilateral action on the part of any state, while continuing to sustain the regional led processes of ASEAN.

As the geopolitical shifts continue to shape the Indo-Pacific, ASEAN’s relevance will lie in its ability to reinvent its entire notion of centrality. There exists tremendous potential for ASEAN to look at broadening new mechanisms such as an ASEAN + Quad dialogue and also the inclusion of ASEAN members within the Quad annually. ASEAN can look at the possibility of a member representing the ASEAN within the Quad. Discussions on evolving a Quad plus have already been debated; Indonesia will probably remain one of the key players that can represent the ASEAN within the Quad as it is seen as a natural leader within the ASEAN and also has a dual ocean approach because of the unique location it occupies in the Indo-Pacific. The AUKUS will remain different from the Quad as the AUKUS integrates three closely allied powers together in the Indo-Pacific. However, as these three layers reiterate their adherence to international law and the rules based order, the potential for divergences between the ASEAN, Quad and AUKUS remain low and can be leveraged in this multi-layered approach.

Professor Shankari Sundararaman is Professor of Southeast Asian Studies, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi.