As the probability of a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war gained momentum, Saudi Arabia’s role has also acquired prominence simultaneously. On March 24, the Russian and the Ukrainian officials held talks with the United States’ (US) officials separately in Saudi Arabia. Initial reports suggest that Russia and Ukraine have agreed to ensure safe navigation through the Black Sea. Although a peace deal and ceasing of fighting may still be difficult, these talks have brought forward Saudi Arabia’s role as a negotiator in a pronounced manner.

Saudi Arabia’s proactive involvement in the resolution of the Russia-Ukraine war points towards the Gulf monarchy’s attempts towards recalibrating its role in the regional and global politics. At regional level, Saudi Arabia is seeking to maintain its leadership position of the Muslim world. At global level it is looking to redefine its role beyond that of just a major oil producer.

First, after playing a peacemaker in the Russia-Ukraine war, Saudi Arabia could consider extrapolating its role in the Middle East. While the Russia-Ukraine war is a major cause of concern for global peace and stability, Middle East itself is on the edge since last one and the half years. The Israel-Hamas war, going on since October 2023, has dragged in several regional and extra-regional powers in the conflict. The conflict has worsened with the involvement of Iran and its proxies that are supporting Hamas militarily by carrying out attacks against Israel. In retaliation Israel and the US have been striking Iran and the Houthis in Yemen.

While ideologically supporting the cause of Palestine, Riyadh has refrained from sharply taking sides with the Palestinians and opposing Israel. An occasional condemnation of Israel from Saudi Arabia has not hurt the prospects of the Gulf Kingdom establishing ties with Israel in the future. In recent times too, Saudi Arabia’s role in the Israel-Hamas war was highlighted when the US Secretary of State Marco Rubio visited Riyadh and held talks with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan. Should there be a possibility of negotiations between the US and Iran, Saudi Arabia is one of the better placed countries to bring the two conflicting sides to the discussion table.

Second, accelerated involvement in the conflict resolution is a way for Saudi Arabia to counter its regional competitors Türkiye and Qatar. Türkiye, owing to its strategic location has been facilitating talks and negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. Türkiye was instrumental in concluding the Black Sea Grain Deal along with Russia, Ukraine and the United Nations. This deal facilitated export of grains from Ukraine through the Black Sea ports. For its part, Qatar is also involved in discussions on ending the Russia-Ukraine war. Previously, Qatar had mediated between the US and the Taliban in 2020.

In Middle East’s regional politics, Türkiye and Qatar are Saudi Arabia’s competitors. Riyadh, with its intensified involvement in the peace talks of the Russia-Ukraine war, would look to enhance its own status in the region vis-à-vis Türkiye and Qatar.  

Third, by presenting itself as a mediator Saudi Arabia would consider ironing out the differences that have crept in its relations with the US. Saudi Arabia remains a close ally and an important strategic partner of the US in the Middle East. However, during Joe Biden’s presidency the Saudi-US ties experienced a rift over a range of issues which include human rights protection and political authority in Saudi Arabia. Now by facilitating talks between the US, Russia and Ukraine, Saudi Arabia would hope to gain prominence in not just in ties with the US but also on the global stage.

Fourth, in continuation of the third point, Saudi Arabia’s role in the Russia-Ukraine war is a projection of its foreign policy of the past few years. The Saudi foreign policy has emerged from being maintaining alliance with the West to following multilateral policy. Saudi Arabia has been following an independent foreign policy where it has managed to pursue cordial ties with various powers like the US, China, Russia and Ukraine. This approach has given Riyadh a distinct advantage to navigate amid a complex and increasingly conflict-ridden world order. Further, Saudi Arabia is also taking steps to diversify its economy and prepare for the post-oil era. A cordial diplomatic image would ensure incoming investments from across the world in different sectors.

An early end to the Russia-Ukraine war also means that Saudi Arabia can pursue its economic goals and also play a larger role in the regional and global affairs. For instance, Saudi Arabia is an integral part of the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC). Conclusion of the Russia-Ukraine war, as also the Israel-Hamas war, would facilitate Saudi Arabia and other member countries of the IMEC to forward their economic cooperation.

Negotiations between the US, Russian and Ukrainian officials is a major step forward for Saudi Arabia in pursuance of its diplomatic and economic goals as these would allow Saudi Arabia to assert its importance in the global order.

Mr. Niranjan Marjani is a political analyst and researcher based in Vadodara, India.